If mkt<50% resolves to PROB=1-2mkt, otherwise resolves to PROB=2-2mkt, rounded to the nearest integer percent.
By mkt I mean the market's predicted probability or "chance" as shown by the interface at close (a 2-or-3-decimal number between zero and one). For example, if the "chance" predicted when the market closes is:
60%, resolves to PROB=2-2*(0.6)=2-1.2=0.8 =80%
1.2%, resolves to PROB=1-2*(0.012)=1-0.024=0.976 ≅98%
Hope this makes it more interesting as my first attempt kinda failed to incentivize much trading.
Market closes at some random time during Monday 1/23/23 EST unless there's trading within the latest 60 min, in which case it closes at a random time between 30 and 60 minutes later regardless of any further activity. I will not actively buy any shares past Sunday EST, but I reserve the right to set protective limit orders or liquidate all or part of a potentially losing position up to when I first check the market on Monday.
Close date updated to 2023-01-23 11:59 pm EST
Close date updated to 2023-01-23 4:15 pm EST
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 |
Yesterday I generated 2 random numbers (0-1 fractions) defining 2 times: time1 (based on rand1) for initial market check/close attempt, and time2 30-60 minutes later (based on rand2) in case there was trading activity in the 60 minutes prior to time1. These were the values:
rand1=.677 -> time1=4:15 pm
rand2=.421 -> time2=4:58 pm
The first is simply the rand1 fraction of the day, and the second is time2=rand1+(1+rand2)/48, both expressed in HH:MM (rounded to the nearest minute).
Verification string for MD5 hash as posted yesterday (remove quotes): "rand1=.677 time1=4:15 pm rand2=.421 time2=4:58 pm"
@deagol lol scratch that (that value was for the other market). 🤦🏻♂️ This is what I meant to say:
“mkt=55% (>50%)” should be “mkt=55% (>=50%)”
