Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the Claude Haiku family (such as "Claude Haiku 5.5" or any other newly designated "Haiku" model) on or before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

For the purposes of this market, "released" means the model is officially launched and made accessible to the public or developers (including in open beta) via at least one of the following channels:

• The Anthropic API / Claude Console (https://console.anthropic.com/)

• The consumer chat interface (https://claude.ai/)

• Major cloud platforms such as Amazon Bedrock or Google Cloud Vertex AI

An announcement of a future release date or restricted closed-beta testing does not qualify as a release.

The primary sources of truth will be:

• The Anthropic Newsroom: https://www.anthropic.com/news

• Anthropic's official X account: https://x.com/AnthropicAI

• Anthropic's Model Documentation: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models

Background

In late September 2026, Anthropic began rolling out its Claude 5.5 generation of models, releasing Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 and Claude Sonnet 5.5 on September 28. In the announcement for Sonnet 5.5, Anthropic noted that "Claude Haiku 5.5, built for high-volume and cost-sensitive applications, will join the Claude 5.5 family in the coming weeks."

The previous model in this tier, Claude Haiku 4.5, was released on October 15, 2025.