Will Polymarket crash on Election Day?
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Plus
27
Ṁ7666
resolved Nov 20
Resolved
NO

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Ṁ1,000
and
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Confirming this market was resolved correctly. No further action is required.

@Predictor lol how can you even confirm that

@Bayesian Confirmed.

@Bayesian I just confirmed it right now. See above. This is Trump's America, anything goes. Who cares?

@Predictor how did you even manage to have a negative Ṁ200k net worth

@nixtoshi Quit talking trash jive turkey.

@Predictor But... that's the whole point of a prediction market, so you can see how good different people are at predicting based on their profits.

@Predictor Did you have a hit out on Carter or something?

How will this be resolved @datachef ?
I presented some proof of it going down briefly on election night
And their own uptime tracker showed 3 incidents in one of their services:
https://status.polymarket.com/

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

It just went down at 21:20 GMT-5 November 5th.

Their servers are rate limiting requests, meaning that some requests are being rejected and showing this error:

@nixtoshi One of my visits loaded (right tab), the other was hung up loading (middle tab) and this one showed this error (left tab)

bought Ṁ300 NO

@nixtoshi for a fraction of a second? A crash means you can't access the website for an extended period of time. That is not a crash. I was able to access it.

@HillaryClinton They handled the uptick in traffic really well, however, I couldn't access some markets during peak load and got the error above, it's relevant for a site like Polymarket because I was looking to sell shares that were affected by new data coming from the official vote counts which I weren't able to sell fast at the prices I wanted, so definitely lost money due to this even if it just lasted like 40 seconds.

Another error I experienced from betting all day there is that sometimes I would be logged out and needed to re-login. I experienced these issues at night during election day.

I think this counts as a crash according to this definition from Google:

"A website crash occurs when a website stops working as it should, preventing visitors from using or accessing it. Crashed websites can't transfer or receive data, meaning instead of the expected site content, visitors are met with an error code or blank page"

I agree that it hasn't been a massive outage or lasted a long time.

Polymarket status page shows that there were 4 incidents in the past week, 1 on October 31, and 3 on November 5, all of which were resolved "after 10 minutes". It think this is a small crash but still a crash:
https://status.polymarket.com/

@nixtoshi then resolve 50:50 or N/A. The creator of this market did not list any description of crash criteria. Lack of description makes this ambiguous.

@HillaryClinton @datachef it's almost like it would have helped to get resolution criteria before the fact.

What does crash mean? If their rate limiting works and the website stays up but is slow or some people can’t access it does that count as a crash or does Polymarket need to completely crash and refuse all requests?

@JonathanMilligan the market creator is the largest YES holder and has not provided resolution criteria. A foolproof way to generate resolution controversy!

@NicoDelon sorry busy day. I don’t know what the standard is for monitoring these markets does anyone have a suggestion for a source of truth?

@datachef Sounds like something to consider before creating the market :-D

@NicoDelon why? Still a week before the election. I also don’t like making unilateral decisions on things that can be decided by the market. Prefer not to.

@datachef It's ambiguous I guess. I personally don't consider an error message that lasts less than 30 seconds going "down". There are no reports of it going down, no one is complaining online etc....

Predictit did go down in 2020 for an hour or so, plenty of complaints, people unable to trade etc... That's down.

@HillaryClinton resolve 50:50 or N/A. or create a community poll "Did Polymarket go down on election day" see how others respond.

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