Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the DJIA closes above 40,000 points on the last trading day of 2023, as reported by the official website of the New York Stock Exchange. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ98 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ21 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
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Reasons for "NO"
1. The considered events by Dec 31, which can lead to 40,000.00 USD, are a significant decrease in the U.S. treasury's 10-year bond yield or many announcements of much better financial reports from listed companies. But it seems hard to happen within approximately two months.
2. We can see a descending triangle starting this August on the chart, representing even lower in the future.
3. An even higher confidence bound price on Dec 31 is predicted at 32,611.02 USD on my forecast sheet in Excel, which is lower than the price of 40,000.00 USD.