So, another non-predictive market?

I don't see why this has to resolve prob. Why not resolve to wikipedia? Or a poll? Or just find someone whose judgement you trust if you don't trust your own?

@Joshua I agree. PROB doesn’t incentivize betting and so the probability you’re gonna get won’t be very informative.

@Joshua Agreed. I don't bet in resolve to PROB markets.

@Joshua How could I resolve to a poll? Maybe I will create another market that does. Could you please help me with that?

Wikipedia seemed unlikely to answer the question reliably, and I sincerely don't know anyone whose judgment I trust on this. Being transparent about it being PROB seemed reasonable.

Yeah, a poll using the manifold poll question option is miles better than prob imo. It's still manipulatable but you need a big group instead of just one whale.

@Joshua should options be YES and NO, and resolve to the one with the highest % at close date?

Yeah nothing wrong with simplicity imo.

I wouldn't make the poll now though. I think it's best to make it as this market closes and have it resolve a week later or something

So that people are voting once there's been time for the results to be validated or not, and so the poll and market aren't open at the same time and therefore more tempting to exploit

@Joshua https://manifold.markets/d/is-this-the-biggest-physics-news-fo-392cac9fbd56?r=ZA

this one resolves to a poll that will be created after the market closes :)

"Is this the biggest physics news for decades?"

50% chance. Inspired on Ben Todd's X post: [tweet]Smoking-gun evidence for modified gravity at low acceleration from Gaia observations of wide binary stars (phys.org) Wil the finding mentioned in this article "have enormous implications for astrophysics, cosmology, and for fundamental physics at large." by the end of 2024? [image]Resolves to a poll I will create on the Maifold plarform after this market closes.