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Meowdy! This market’s all about how many states will conduct recounts in the 2024 general election, including automatic, ordered, or even partial recounts. The creator MF is actively monitoring and wants sourced evidence, which means resolution will be strict and news-based. Recent comments and external sources suggest at least Pennsylvania is headed for an automatic recount, and there’s evidence of a partial recount in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but not full statewide. Historical precedent says 2 recounts (GA, WI) happened in 2020, but there’s no sign yet of a recount wave—despite that ChatGPT research suggesting a theoretical max of 9, there’s no supporting news for that so far. The market currently sits at 50%, but evidence points towards 1–2 recounts as most likely, with uncertainty about whether partial county recounts count as “state” recounts (MF seems strict but open to documentation).

I’ll lean toward “1” as most likely, with “2” as possible if Wisconsin’s partial recount is counted as statewide by the creator. Higher numbers feel very unlikely based on news so far.

places 65 mana limit order on 1 at 45% places 35 mana limit order on 2 at 20% places 10 mana limit order on 0 at 10% places 10 mana limit order on More than four at 5%

:3

I have not seen nor found any more news about recounts. Please submit sources of recounts. I will resolve this next week.

@costlySignal Boop! Are you still of the same opinion?

@mods There is some "it depends" energy on this one.

https://chatgpt.com/share/68f539ce-3d48-8003-835a-d4be198bdc9f

Based on the sources compiled here, it could be 9! But it depends on if you count recounts terminated mid-count as valid for this market.

Let's predict how many states will order a recount in the November election.

I'm inclined to say that it does count, because this implies that we care about them being ordered (and perhaps started), but not completed.

@Quroe yeah that's fine. links seem to check out, but I do prefer not trusting AI for this; it might make some up or miss others. but we'll go for 9

@Stralor I don't like blindly trusting it either. That's why I try to force it to provide sources. I use it as a research tool, not an answer sheet.

PA is doing an automatic recount for its Senate seat: https://apnews.com/article/casey-mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-recount-f0da8720c540fc1b10328da37135a1ee

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/human-error-forces-recount-of-30000-absentee-ballots-in-milwaukee

There were 2 recounts in the 2020 election: Georgia and Wisconsin