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I may be stupid, but does this indicate a YES threshold was already reached?

The visa sanctions imposed by the State Department, as well as increased inspections from Customs and Border Protection, will remain in place until the first plane of Colombian migrants are returned.

@AlQuinn from the article
>The White House said late Sunday that the government of Colombia has agreed to take deportation flights of migrants from the country, hours after President Donald Trump threatened tariffs and visa restrictions.

>The White House said the emergency tariffs and sanctions Trump threatened earlier in the day were fully drafted and will be held — but not signed — unless Colombia does not uphold the agreement. The visa sanctions imposed by the State Department, as well as increased inspections from Customs and Border Protection, will remain in place until the first plane of Colombian migrants are returned.

Hmmm not sure, seems like there were no tariff or sanctions actually applied right? What do you think?

@cosmicmiskatonic No tariffs, but the article (also reported in CNN) implies some degree of visa sanctions were applied separately and are still in effect, plus the enhanced CBP inspections

@AlQuinn ohhh I see. If anybody can find evidence of that I'll resolve to YES.

@cosmicmiskatonic What we can minimally establish based on primary sources is that the State Dept ceased issuing new visas "Secretary Rubio immediately ordered a suspension of visa issuance at the U.S. Embassy Bogota consular section":

https://www.state.gov/secretary-rubio-authorizes-visa-restrictions-on-colombian-government-officials-and-their-immediate-family-members/

The notice also indicated they were "now authorizing travel sanctions on individuals and their families, who were responsible for the interference of U.S. repatriation flight operations", which, if accurate, would have begun earlier today a few hours before the deal came through.

@AlQuinn makes sense, resolved!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-27/us-to-hold-off-on-colombia-tariffs-white-house-says?embedded-checkout=true&sref=xBlXsKLY

It's always hard to read the tea leaves with international relations, but I get the sense this was more about the handcuffs and military flights than the deportations themselves.

@WilliamGunn hmmm could be yeah. Do you think the title or description should reflect this somehow?

@cosmicmiskatonic No, I think that would be an entirely different question, but good for potential traders to keep in mind that signaling about respect and values is often more salient than the economic side of things when thinking about what might happen.

Do let me know if you see another market like this one, to refine and find the canon one