Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if authoritative and credible reporting confirms beyond a reasonable doubt that Hamideh Soleimani Afshar is the niece of the late IRGC General Qassem Soleimani. It will resolve to "No" if authoritative reporting definitively disproves this specific familial connection or if the claim is officially retracted by the U.S. State Department.

In the event that competing official or reputable claims persist, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence provided by credible independent investigative reporting.

Background

In April 2026, the U.S. State Department and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced the arrest of Hamideh Soleimani Afshar and her daughter in Los Angeles, stating that their legal permanent resident (green card) status had been revoked. In official statements, U.S. officials identified Hamideh Soleimani Afshar as the niece of the late Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the IRGC's Quds Force who was killed in a 2020 U.S. strike.

Following the announcement, Iranian state media cited relatives of the late commander claiming that the individuals arrested have no relation to the Soleimani family and describing the U.S. government's identification as a fabrication. This market focuses on the factual accuracy of the identification of Hamideh Soleimani Afshar as Qassem Soleimani's niece, amid conflicting claims between U.S. authorities and Iranian representatives.

This description was generated by AI.