Will Netflix report a decrease in US subscribers in their Q4 2023 financial results?
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resolved Jan 23
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NO

Netflix will report their combined US and Canada subscriber numbers sometime after the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 as part of their financial results and business outlook. If these numbers mark a decrease in subscribers, then this question resolves to "yes". This question closes when Netflix announces their Q4 2023 subsriber numbers and may be extended.

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bought Ṁ30 of YES

Dang @SirCryptomind, you are on top of it! Indeed, subscriber's to Netflix increased Q4. 🙂

bought Ṁ600 of NO

Fourth Quarter Earnings (Official Netflix Investor Site)

40% Of All new of the 13.2 million additions were for Ad-Tier.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Netflix detailed a strong development in supporters for Q4 and adjusted income with desires, in spite of confronting potential US supporter misfortunes due to a cost increase​​. As of Q3 2023, it had 247.15 million endorsers, but a study shown that about 40% of US endorsers considered canceling due to higher prices​​. The company's income development moderated, showing a common slant, but it forecasted an increment in income and normal paid individuals for Q1 2023, in spite of the fact that with less paid increments anticipated between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023​​.

The probability of a diminishing number in US endorsers in Q4 2023 shows up sound, particularly in light of client responses to cost climbs and showcase competition. Be that as it may, Netflix's key activities, like presenting an ad-supported benefit, might relieve the effect of potential losses​​​​.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Very recently Netflix adopted a new measure to prevent password sharing of consumer accounts. Now only one household can be used per Netflix account, and this is tracked via IP address.


I vote this will not decrease subscribers, because the people who are paying for the service use the service, so they will maintain their accounts. This means subscribers wont decrease. The people who were mooching off the people with paid accounts will now have the choice to either open their own account or not. But either way it will not decrease subscribers, only potential to increase.

This opinion has been supported by the fact that netflix has already claimed success over the crackdown on password sharing by stating they have "boosted subscribers by about 6 million." (Reuters, 2023)

https://www.reuters.com/technology/netflix-may-tap-price-hikes-after-success-password-sharing-crackdown-2023-10-16/#:~:text=Oct%2016%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Netflix's,it%20reports%20earnings%20on%20Wednesday.
https://apnews.com/article/netflix-subscribers-quarterly-earnings-password-sharing-af0abe0489d06a3240ff33ef292a55e0

When examining the paid memberships at the end of period , it's evident that the number of subscribers has consistently risen during the first and second quarters of 2023. Considering these figures, if we were to conduct a statistical analysis and assume a scenario where the likelihood of continued growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2023 is 95%, the following outcomes can be expected. We have chosen a 95% probability because when we forecasted a subscriber count of approximately 75,600 in Q2, it was associated with an 88% probability. Given the ongoing upward trend and our desire to increase the probability, we are making a projection for Q3 and Q4.

 

With the data available, we have predicted the value to be approximately 75,920 for Q3 using various central tendency and dispersion measures. The significance value is greater than 0.05, which implies that the null hypothesis is valid, and the data is reliable.

 

It's important to note that there are two possible outcomes for this prediction. Subscriber numbers could either increase or decrease, depending on a variety of internal and external factors. To make this prediction based on past trends (i.e., considering Q1 and Q2 values) and disregarding unforeseen factors that may influence future values, we can assume that the upward trend observed in Q1 and Q2 will continue into Q3 and Q4 also.

But the results were reverse when compared with the statistics in case of Q3 so the trend may change even in Q4 also.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Netflix will report a decrease in US subscribers. The company lost 200,000 subscribers in April 2022 claiming by inflation and competition in the market (Netflix Loses Almost a Million Subscribers in Last Quarter, n.d.). Another reason can be a rise in prices of the different plans of subscriptions (Netflix Loses Almost a Million Subscribers in Last Quarter, n.d.).

The company decided that the plans that allow people to watch movies together having one subscription, must be higher in price. The price of standard plan in the U.S has changed from $14 to $15.49 for those who watch jointly (Netflix Loses Almost a Million Subscribers in Last Quarter, n.d.). And in the other side, basic and standard plans’ prices in the UK have increased (Netflix Loses Almost a Million Subscribers in Last Quarter, n.d.). Netflix may not be happy on sharing password among the subscribers so that the company can profit in a higher level.

 

Citation:

Netflix loses almost a million subscribers in last quarter. (n.d.). GlobalData. https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/technology--media-and-telecom/netflix-loses-almost-a-million-subscribers-in-last-quarter/#:~:text=Price%20increases%20are%20also%20the,from%20%2414%20in%20January%202022.

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