Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, during Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States (January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029), SpaceX is nationalized by the U.S. federal government. Nationalization is defined as the transfer of SpaceX's ownership or control from private to government hands, resulting in the U.S. government holding a majority stake or full control over the company. The resolution will be based on official government announcements or credible reporting from reputable news organizations. If Trump leaves office early for any reason, SpaceX getting nationalized before Jan 20, 2029 still counts.

Background

As of June 2025, there have been no public indications or official statements suggesting that the U.S. government intends to nationalize SpaceX. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, remains a privately held aerospace manufacturer and space transport services company. The Trump administration has focused on various domestic and foreign policies, including immigration reforms, trade tariffs, and restructuring federal agencies, but there is no evidence to suggest that nationalizing private aerospace companies like SpaceX is part of its agenda.

Considerations

While the Trump administration has implemented significant policy changes in various sectors, nationalizing a major private company like SpaceX would be unprecedented and could face substantial legal and political challenges. Traders should monitor official government communications and reputable news sources for any developments related to this matter.