Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, in both November and December 2023. NO if there is clearly no such livestreams by end of December, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
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https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1740064366270013871
Starbase's Orbital Launch Site is enjoying a vent party, as they test the tank farm. The road is open, and thus, there is no major testing today, but hopefully this is setting the stage for a Static Fire of Booster 10 in the near future.
https://www.cameroncountytx.gov/spacex/
Primary Date December 29, 2023 6:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.
Possible Closure Alternate Date
January 3, 20248:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Possible Closure. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach now open.
So could static fire booster 9 on 29th December.
Close mishap investigation, complete any required remediations and documentation, get launch licence, first full stack, install FTS, get road closure, marine NGA, NOTAMs & TFRs, and probably lots more not mentioned in time for launch 31 December? Just no way that is all going to happen.