Hashem Safieddine is considered the most likely candidate for the next secretary-general of Hezbollah, following the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
(There were reports that Safieddine officially became leader on Sep 29th, but these have not been substantiated)
Will he survive the year?
Resolves NO on credible reporting of Safieddine's death by reliable media sources in 2024, local time in Lebanon.
Resolves YES if he is still alive or if evidence of his death is sufficiently ambiguous. As this may be a judgement call, I won't bet in this market.
1,000
3.00IDF now confirms he was killed:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/22/israel-iran-war-news-hamas-lebanon-hezbollah/
Hashem Safieddine, the senior Hezbollah leader widely seen as the successor to the group’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed around three weeks ago, the Israel Defense Forces announced Tuesday. The IDF said it could confirm the news following weeks of speculation about whether Safieddine, who headed Hezbollah’s executive council, was still alive.
This is being reported uncritically by many media sources, and Wikipedia seems satisfied too.
Resolving NO.
@UnspecifiedPerson I remember that Israel have eliminated him once already in June. Lets just see if he is lying before any Hez's confirmation
I will leave this market open a bit longer in the hopes of getting more official confirmation. This shouldn't be treated as much evidence that its criteria haven't been satisfied - it's useful to wait a little bit regardless since ideally we would resolve with everyone being happy the outcome is clear. Barring that of course I'll make a judgement call, but it seems reasonably likely more evidence will come soon so I won't do that prematurely.
@chrisjbillington Leave it open another two days and the fifth leader will likely get nominated and also killed.
Already nominated the successor and he is also already dead.
In an unannounced confirmation of the death of Hashem Safieddin, Hezbollah has elected Ibrahim Amin Alsayed as the new Secretary General to succeed Safieddin
The lack of contact with Safieddine also proves that there is an intelligence breach within the group, “allowing Israel to locate and attack one leader after another,” Al Jazeera political analyst Marwan Bishara said.
Nader Hashemi, associate professor of Middle East and Islamic Politics at Georgetown University, says losing contact with Nasrallah’s successor is “another serious and significant setback for Hezbollah”.
“The wording that they’ve lost contact with him is an attempt to prepare Hezbollah supporters with the coming announcement that he has been confirmed dead,” he told Al Jazeera from Ottawa, Canada
Hezbollah Shura (consultative) Council is the party’s highest body that makes all major decisions following consultation meetings.
It has 9 members with 7 Lebanese & 2 Iranians. The Lebanese members were recently:
1. Sayed Hassan Nasrallah
2. Sayed Hashem Safieddin
3. Sheikh Naim Qassem
4. Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek
5. Sayed Ibrahim Amin Alsayed
6. Haj Mohammed Raad
7. Haj Mohammed Haidar
The Iranian members were:
1. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Adviser
2. Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon
The powerful decision-making Shura Council must meet to elect a new secretary-general.
Israel not only eliminated Hezbollah's new leader, but also the entire Shura Council, the committee that nominates Hezbollah leaders
Saudi channel Al Arabiya reports that Israel confirmed the death of Hashem Safieddine, even though there is no official confirmation from IDF yet
I notice in recent articles that Safieddine is referred to as merely a likely next leader, and not as the current leader of Hezbollah. It seems that reports the other day of him officially replacing Nasrallah are thus far unsubstantiated.
For the avoidance of doubt, note that whether or not Safieddine is the leader Hezbollah has no bearing on how this market will resolve.