Prior to the launch of drones and missiles toward Israel on April 13th, Iran warned the US not to intervene. Nonetheless the US did assist in intercepting drones en-route to Israel. According to the ISW:

Iran warned Israel’s partners, particularly the United States and Jordan, not to intervene in Iran’s attack against Israel. Supreme National Security Council-affiliated media warned the United States against intervening in Iran’s attack, claiming that Iran has prepared ballistic missile platforms to target “several US bases in the region.”[20] The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN similarly warned the United States to “stay away” from the conflict between Iran and Israel.[21] The United States and the United Kingdom have intercepted over 100 drones outside of Israeli airspace at the time of this writing.[22]

Will Iran retaliate against the US, within the next month?

Resolves YES if Iran or their proxies

• Attack any US military assets or personnel, civilian infrastructure or individuals, including military bases, embassies, military ships, civilian ships, US territory,

• before May 14th, local time in Israel, and

• there is credible reporting attributing to Iranian officials (they do not need to be identified) that the attack(s) were specifically in response to the US assisting Israel in the April 13th attack. I.e. unrelated attacks will not count.

An attack need not be successful or cause any casualties to count, but must be a kinetic attack with the potential to cause physical injury or property damage. i.e. cyber attacks do not count.

About civilian ships: cargo is irrelevant, but any American crew or passengers, the boat belonging to an American company or sailing under an American flag would count (as in any one of these would be sufficient).

I won't bet on this market.