Will Australian inflation be 3.7% or greater in Q1 2024?
17
120
420
Apr 30
13%
chance

Resolves on whether the Q1 2024 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows CPI growth of 3.7% or greater, rounded to one decimal place, in the 12 months to March 2024.

This data will likely be released in late April 2024. Market will resolve upon the initial release without regard for revisions that future releases may contain.

This question pertains to the quarterly CPI releases, not to the "monthly CPI indicator" series recently started by the ABS. If there is no such distinction anymore come market close, and CPI releases move to monthly instead of quarterly, then this market will resolve using the release for the month of March.

You can see recent Australian inflation history here, in Q4 2023 it was 4.1%:

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi

The threshold of 3.7% comes from (interpolating) the RBA's February 2024 forecasts.

Markets for 2024 Australian inflation:

/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-37-or (you are here)

/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-33-or

/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-32-or

/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-32-or-4e3ae373a74f

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