This market resolves to the percentage of voters nationally that vote YES in the upcoming Indigenous Voice referendum in Australia, according to official sources such as the Australian Electoral Commission.
Exact numbers of YES and NO votes from the AEC will be used to calculate a percentage figure without any rounding. In the unlikely event that the result falls exactly on the boundary between two answers, the market will resolve to the two adjacent answers with 50% weight each.
If the referendum is postponed to a specific date in the future, this market's close date will be extended. If the referendum is called off or postponed but with no date set as of the end of 2023, this market resolves N/A.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,797 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,843 | |
| 3 | Ṁ173 | |
| 4 | Ṁ172 | |
| 5 | Ṁ99 |
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@Gen that's what most are forecasting. I wasn't sure for a bit, as the vote initially seemed to be splitting along socioeconomic lines rather than partisan lines. Postal votes usually favour the coalition when we're talking about partisan splits, but who do they favour when we're talking about socio-economic splits?
Nonetheless this is what most commentators are saying, so looks like I lost a bunch taking your NO limit orders on 40-45%, well bet!
@Gen WA also started out more YES and moved toward NO - the opposite of what we expected. >40% nationally was looking more likely when WA was >40% itself!
AEC has stopped reporting the rest of the counting for almost two and a half hour. Not sure what happened, since I couldn't find anything online or on the social media. Maybe it's just getting late in Australia and they will resume reporting in the morning.
But for now, I am exiting the market since the returns of having so much liquidity tied up and the risks of something happening while I am not looking are not worth it, even though my very rough projection shows that a sub-40% scenario is still likely. It's also hard to tell if postal or other declaration votes have already been factored in, or if they are not and a sudden influx of them might change things.
I swear I am not selling again 😂
Twice sold, twice planning to re-enter only to see you bought in. Was staring at the Excel weighing. The current trajectory (assuming linearity, which won't be the case as the later votes seem to lean no so far) is pointing at 39.7-39.8%.
@CU It'll be close. I was overconfident it'd be above 40. WA might take something like 1.5% off the national figure.
@chrisjbillington Ha, WA's YES vote so far is bang on the national average, which therefore might stay above 40% after all, depending on what postal votes do.
@Daniel_MC Not necessarily, because of Australia's double majority rule referendums must not only get a national majority but also a majority in at least four states. Referendums can and have failed even with >50% of the vote.