Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 10,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?
Basic
8
แน495Nov 9
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The United States has a recent history of extremely close presidential elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton by less than 80,000 votes between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Washington Post).
In 2000, George Bush famously won against Al Gore by only a few hundred votes in the state of Florida.
This question resolves YES if 10,000 votes or less (i.e. the total vote difference between the top two candidates) distributed over any number of states/districts, would have made the difference between one presidential candidate or the other winning by electors to the Electoral College.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?
33% chance
Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 200,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?
62% chance
What will be the exact electoral college outcome in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes?
50% chance
Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 1,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?
2% chance
Will the 2024 US Presidential election happen normally?
72% chance
What will be the margin of victory (in number of electors) for the 2024 US Presidential election?
Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 50,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?
18% chance
Will more than 100,000 voters decide the 2024 election?
50% chance
Will the 2024 election be extremely close? (Within eight electoral votes of a tie)
18% chance