Will benwr go on at least one date as a result of his dating doc, by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

I finally made a dating doc today.

It's here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dIqZm80FXnhPscSQ0iTmLiY6UwTrfrV82HUBmlRC9Pw/edit


This market will resolve positively if:

1. I embark on an unambiguous date before midnight on New Year's 2023/2024 (i.e. a New Years' Eve date would count as long as it begins before midnight), such that:
2. I'm confident that the date would not have happened without the dating doc. e.g. the date is with someone I met because they reached out having seen the doc, or with someone I already knew, but who reports that they wouldn't have wanted to go on a date before seeing the doc.

Dates that counterfactually depend on other things that transitively depend on the doc will also cause the market to resolve positively. e.g. if I go on a date because someone is trying to manipulate this market, that also counts.

A couple of possibly relevant facts:

  • I've been on 1 date with a new person in the last two months, and about 3 in the last year.

  • I'm a very occasional user of dating apps, and I have never made a dating doc before.

  • I made this doc because someone responded to my anonymous feedback form basically asking for me to make a dating doc, to help them decide whether they were interested in me.

  • Within a couple of hours of making the doc, I received anonymous feedback that I'd look better with a different haircut.

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predicted NO

Two updates:

  1. I'm going on a long road trip, between October 17 and early-mid December

  2. When I posted about the road trip on Facebook, one person reached out (about my dating doc) because my route passes near where they live.

predicted NO

@BenWeinsteinRaun Any updates?

predicted NO

my friends are lucky that all prediction markets are assassina... err, motivation markets :)

sold Ṁ24 of NO

@BenWeinsteinRaun I promise not to sabotage your attempts to date people.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@BenWeinsteinRaun You might date someone, but respectfully, it will is much more likely to be in spite of this document than because of it. Imo.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@BenWeinsteinRaun that's why we bet.

predicted NO

@BenWeinsteinRaun Sorry man, It's just the base-rates on dating docs.

predicted YES

@EliTyre is it?

predicted NO

@KatjaGrace Well, I actually just discovered today that people have been responding to my dating doc and I haven't been getting notifications!

So uh, I might have been misinformed.

predicted YES

@EliTyre I got >100 responses to mine, but it was broadcast unusually much (I haven't responded to most yet). I am also sitting next to someone who I met through his.

@KatjaGrace Yes, but there's a major male-female discrepancy in these.

predicted NO

I don't currently plan to trade in this market any further than I already have. I reserve the right to change my mind, but mostly I'm interested in gauging others' beliefs rather than making mana for myself, here.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

You seem neurotic but lovely - If Berkeley is anything like London, I'd say you have good odds.

Your friends seem really kind and patient with the chathamroom exercise,

you should totally take the one friend who was kinda annoyed at you for depressedly flaking out on them so frequently for a fun adventure someplace - maybe geocaching?

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