🏅 Top traders

Resolving YES as there's sufficient proof that @DylanSlagh has fulfilled the spirit of the market before close (although I'll follow up with you if there's any problem with the referral credit). Feel free to reimburse @june's losses with your bot piñata earnings (which, at a glance, looks like Ṁ300 of losses, but I'm not certain will be well received). Otherwise I can step in and help as well, as penance for misleading resolution criteria. Thanks all! Next iteration will be going up soon (with clearer criteria).

@brubsby ROUND 4

I mean, the title here does say someone just has to spend the money. And technically, @brubsby should now legally own the used book being shipped even if they do not physically possess it.

@Joshua @brubsby ’s comment, “quick reminder that the free book credit doesn't get added to my account until your signup order ships, which usually isn't same day (and the market closes today)” implies to me that the order has to ship so they receive the credit before market close for a YES resolution.

The comment does complicate things, Dylan probably should have read that before proceeding. But I think this is pretty up in the air as far as what is a "fair" resolution.

Surely the overall goal of the market was to incentivize Dylan to do what he did, so the market has definitely failed if he then loses all his mana.

@Joshua That was the goal, but it’s also a market on Manifold where you and I and others are betting on the likelihood of it happening based on the specified criteria.

@june this was mostly intended to clarify criteria for @GarrettBaker, i'm certainly not going to make Dylan hold the enormous bag here, I think resolving yes given my below receipt proof criteria is the fairest to everyone, with me holding most of the losses (782 mana)

@brubsby I understand the case for an N/A resolution, but I strongly disagree with resolving YES. That resolution would go directly against the resolution criterion you gave.

It's a bit of a mess all around, but notably Dylan has offered managrams to compensate for losses.

@brubsby If I resolve N/A @DylanSlagh is out 30 real dollars for no reward, and the spirit of the market is dishonored, If I resolve YES I'm out the most mana (and you out 200, which I can refund you for, admittedly, some underspecified criteria)

@june although your NO buying was admittedly a little mean lol, but I can respect it.

@brubsby Just my two cents I'm totally ok with a N/A resolution. I should have read the comments . @june I will happily send you 500M if the market resolves YES or N/A. I bought a few of my favorite books that I've never had physical copies of so either way I'm 4 books richer :)

But if he N/As, we lose all the mana that's been conned out of the bots!
(I think either yes or N/A would be fair but I think YES is better incentive for future markets)

@Joshua yeah I'm leaning toward YES, as N/A always seems the most unfun (and would negate the bot piñata money), and NO would be extremely greedy for me to do, and disincentivize people from engaging with my markets. I don't want to rules lawyer profit into my own hands, which NO or N/A would also be doing (free book and no losses).

The incentive structure here is supposed to be for me to lose mana and be happy that someone has enabled me to get another free book with my play money. The fact that it's not a bounty allows me to play with market dynamics for a bigger pot (and better payoff if nobody takes the bait)

Don't mind me, i'll just keep buying yes over here.

@june also, just to clarify further, the intention of my comment to Garrett was mostly to try to avoid a situation like this where there was a grey area in the resolution criteria that might be controversial and leave me in a morally hazardous situation.

@brubsby sorry for causing all this hassle 😭

@DylanSlagh no need to apologize, i am actually just happy that someone used my referral link :^)

If possible I'd like to humbly beg for a N/A resolution. I'm really sorry for fucking up everyone

I can send a manalink to everyone with their prospective profits (except the bot fml)

@DylanSlagh the book credit went through btw! (in case you were wondering)

Is it evil to keep betting no and hope for slow shipping

@june Oh I didn't know that that he has to get the book by market close. oh jesus I've made a mistake

@DylanSlagh should have read the fine print

@DylanSlagh lol okay so in retrospect I should've been a little more explicit in the criteria, the reward gets added to my account once YOUR order ships, which can take one or two days, to align with the spirit of the market I'll also now add that if you DM me proof on discord (or post here) of your purchase that is dated before market close, I'll hold off on resolving in either direction until the order ships.

@brubsby Then will you resolve YES even if it doesn’t ship before close? That would contradict your earlier comment, which is what I made my bets based on.

@june in all fairness, if we're being litigious, my comment "quick reminder that the free book credit doesn't get added to my account until your signup order ships, which usually isn't same day (and the market closes today)" was not an alteration of the resolution criteria, but a descriptive statement about the functioning of the thriftbooks reward program. The resolution criteria continues to be:
"Resolves YES if I get a free book from a signup through this by market close.
Resolves NO otherwise."
The clause "if I get a free book" is open to some interpretation, and I think most would agree the machinations of my receiving a free book have been initiated before market close.

@brubsby I used your referral code when checking out

edit: I thought it was EST but I guess its some other time zone that's displayed in the screenshot