, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023. The questions cover diverse topics around finance, tech, investment, and other items. I found myself wishing there were associated probabilities as I was reading, so I thought this would make sense for a prediction market like Manifold!

To incentivize traders, I'll offer $100 to the #1 spot on the leaderboard, $50 to the #2 spot, and $25 to the #3 spot; 

these prizes are conditional on there being 500+ traders across all markets by the end of 2023

 (i.e. if one trader bets on 50 markets, that counts as 50 traders for purposes of this calculation). The winning trader must reach out to me via Twitter DM (see my profile - or try to get my attention on Manifold somehow) and I will pay via Venmo or another method if it's not too burdensome (I swear to god if you try to get me to create a crypto wallet...) .

Traders are disqualified from these prizes if they are rude or annoy me (up to my subjective determination). If a trader expects that excessive subjectivity regarding these markets may cause them such distress that it overwhelms the mana, USD prizes, and the inexpressable joy of predicting, 

I would encourage them to NOT engage with this group and save us both the trouble

. There will almost certainly be times when I am slow to respond / opine on a resolution criteria or I misinterpret one of the Term Sheet predictions or I'm not familiar with a given sub-industry or what have you; please engage accordingly! 

I would appreciate if traders would help me with the resolution criteria. I will give a good-faith effort in trying to resolve these markets, but there are quite a few areas of expertise that I don't have on this list and it's possible I get out of my depth (which I'm going into eyes open, so bet accordingly). 

Though it pains me, I will refrain from betting on these markets myself to stay as impartial as possible. 

Please do not add or remove markets from this group. 

As you will read in the markets, I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in these markets and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as they arise. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve a given market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a" (this may ultimately be the case for many of these markets).

, a group that I would very much like to grow on Manifold. If you have expertise within the domains of private equity, venture capital, secondaries, or any other topic relating to private markets, please make markets / bet on other markets within that group! I think private markets are perfect candidates for prediction markets and I'm excited about the possibilities (if only it were highly traded / liquid!)

Term Sheet 2023 Predictions