Resolves YES if the U.S. government is shutdown for more than 15 days according to U.S. Office of Personnel Management, based on notices checked at 10a.m. eastern time each day.
If there are multiple shutdowns, this market considers only the first to take place in 2025. Closures due to weather or holidays do not count. If no shutdown occurs in 2025, this market resolves 'no'.
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve on October 16th at 10am ET, which is 15 days after October 1st at 10am. This means a shutdown lasting from October 1st through October 16th (at 10am) would qualify as "more than 15 days."
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y'all are confident now that we're going into day 15. I mean, it's super likely, but 99.5% likely? If I read this right, this closes today but resolves tomorrow at 10am
I assume it started midnight at end of 30 September. When does it end? When funding legislation passes congress? Signed into law by president? When furloughed workers return to work? or something else?
@brod
@ChristopherRandles I’m basing this off the poly/kalshi criteria, which goes off how long after 10am ET October 1st the OPM page continues to display this notice:
I’m not sure exactly on the procedure for this being updated, but I assume it would be after the president signs funding legislation and before furloughed workers return