MANIFOLD
Will Kimmel Live Have Over 3 Million Total Viewers and 500K 18-49
8
Ṁ125Ṁ87
resolved Sep 24
100%28%
Over 3 million total views and over 500K key demo (like family feud rerun)
51%
Over 3 million total views and over 250k key demo (Canceled Colbert surge)
8%
Over 2 million total views and over 200k key demo
6%
between 1.5-2 million and less 200k over 150k key demo
6%
Less than 1.5 million total views and less than 150k key demo

ABC is putting Kimmel Live back on starting tonight. What will the ratings be for tonights show.

Ratings are usually reported 2-4 days later in Nielsen overnights.

Not all ABC station could put Kimmel on.

This is resolving based upon the overnight Nielsen numbers that get reported by end of this week or latest tuesday next week. So long as they are reported, going with those numbers and not waiting for any adjusted numbers or the +7 numbers etc...

The Replacement shows on Thursday and Friday night were Celebrity Family Feud reruns. Thursday night had 3.04 million total viewers and 540K in the 18-49 key demo.

There could have been some republicans boosting the CFF ratings.

Kimmel Live coming back should see boost in viewership from the political left.

There was a surge for Colbert after he was cancelled.

Up from 2.4 million to 3 million total views.

Kimmel live starts from a lower case. 1.1 million and 130k key demo

  • Update 2025-09-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the show is not broadcast on the intended night, the market will either resolve to N/A or be rolled to the first night Kimmel Live is back on the air; the creator will try to roll.

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6.26 million total viewers and 1.18 million in the key demo. despite missing 23% of potential viewing population without Sinclair and Nextar affiliates. This marks the most-watched episode in the show's history and more than triples its typical audience of around 1.6 million viewers per episode during the 2024-2025 TV season. And well over 5 times the 1.1 million total viewers for the past month.

Do people want me to open up the question for trading leading into the actual data being released. There is post show info that is available. And overnights should come out today in hours or tomorrow. Given the attention, I would expect it will be later today. 50% chance in the next 4 hours. The official YouTube clip of Kimmel's return monologue ("Jimmy Kimmel Is Back!") has over 10 million views which is way more than normal. I am not trading, so if there is strong opinion to reopen let me know. Default is leaving it closed.

Show was broadcast. Sinclair and Nextar with 66 out of 226 affiliates did not air the show. Will wait for the TV rating results

If the show is not broadcast then I will either NA the question or roll it to the first night Kimmel Live is shown. I will try to roll it the first night Kimmel Live is back on the air.

@Bandors Seems in bad form to post this. All of his bad reviews are from one honestly contentious market. I don't think they acted in bad faith, it was just a difficult market to tend to. Do you think there is a risk they misresolve this market?

@ian I don't think the market was 'contentious' if the vast, vast majority rated him one star.

@Bandors when you compromise you please no one, which is what he did.

@ian the resolution was Manifold. I listed conditions for a Yes vs No question but there was contentious debates about the meaning of words in the listed conditions.

I am not trading this question.

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