Currently Elon has $830 billion and Bill Gates has $104.8 billion. Bill has just over 12.6% of the net worth of Elon Musk. If Bill Gates stayed at $105 billion then Elon would need $1.75 trillion.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on Forbes' 2026 World Billionaires List and subsequent annual lists. As of the 2026 list, Elon Musk has $839 billion and Bill Gates has $108 billion, meaning Gates currently holds approximately 12.9% of Musk's net worth. The market resolves YES if Gates' net worth falls below 6% of Musk's net worth according to Forbes' official billionaires list for the specified year. Resolution will use Forbes' annual March publication or the most recent official Forbes billionaires ranking available for each deadline. If neither billionaire appears on the Forbes list, the market resolves N/A.

If the forbes online billionaire list goes away then the Bloomberg billionaire list or other list will replace it.

Background

Gates has slipped to 19th on the billionaires list, largely due to transferring tens of billions to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and philanthropic-related causes. Gates intends to give away much of his fortune, which will likely continue reducing his relative wealth position. Musk's wealth is heavily concentrated in Tesla stock, making his net worth volatile based on market conditions.

Considerations

The 6% threshold requires Musk's net worth to grow significantly relative to Gates, or Gates' wealth to decline substantially through philanthropy, or both. Given Gates' stated commitment to wealth transfer and Musk's current dominance, the timeline matters considerably—earlier dates require more dramatic shifts in their relative positions.

This description was generated by AI.