Will Haley catch up to Ramaswamy before the second GOP primary debate?

630

Ṁ12K

Ṁ1.1K

resolved Sep 26

Resolved

YES

ALL

According to 538's Who's ahead in National Polls page, will Nikki Haley tie with or surpass Vivek Ramaswamy before the second GOP debate?

As of August 28, Nikki Haley was at 5.4%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 10.1%.

This will resolve "Yes" if Nikki Haley ties with or surpasses Vivek Ramaswamy according to the 538 page before the start of the next GOP debate (currently scheduled for September 27, 2024). Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

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25 Comments

47 Holders

177 Trades

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predicted NO

R: 5.7%, H 6.1%

Wow, the final sprint in this market is crazy. I'm actually super surprised this happened on the last day!

predicted NO

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Resolves YES? Or is this about at the start of the debate?

predicted NO

@jskf The requirement was tying or passing before the debate, which has occurred. Thanks for playing!

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Who the hell supports Nikki Haley?

predicted NO

R: 6%, H 5.9% !!!

predicted YES

@AaronBreckenridge Flip incoming. Where my "collapsing Vivek" bros at?

predicted NO

R: 6.1%, H: 5.6%

predicted NO

R: 5.9%, H: 5.3%

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I put up limit order for 1k yes at 10% if you want more volume. Expiring in an hour since polls could come out anytime

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@EliLifland saw this late

predicted NO

R: 7.4%, H: 5.0%

predicted YES

@AaronBreckenridge We're running out of time for the polls to correct.

R: 7.9%, H: 5.2%

predicted YES

R: 7.0%, H 5.5%

predicted YES

R: 7.8%, H: 6.4%

predicted YES

R: 7.6%, H: 6.1%

predicted YES

Ramaswamy 7.3%, Haley 5.9%

predicted YES

This market is now a little over halfway to close. In that time, Vivek Ramaswamy has lost 3.3% and Nikki Haley has gained 0.5%. They started separated by 4.7% but are now only separated by 0.9%. Could be a nail-biter folks. Expect another market to open after the debate.