Will Haley catch up to Ramaswamy before the second GOP primary debate?
58
1.1kṀ12k
resolved Sep 26
Resolved
YES

According to 538's Who's ahead in National Polls page, will Nikki Haley tie with or surpass Vivek Ramaswamy before the second GOP debate?

As of August 28, Nikki Haley was at 5.4%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 10.1%.

This will resolve "Yes" if Nikki Haley ties with or surpasses Vivek Ramaswamy according to the 538 page before the start of the next GOP debate (currently scheduled for September 27, 2024). Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ5,213
2Ṁ388
3Ṁ305
4Ṁ205
5Ṁ203
Sort by:
predictedNO

R: 5.7%, H 6.1%

Wow, the final sprint in this market is crazy. I'm actually super surprised this happened on the last day!

predictedNO

Resolves YES? Or is this about at the start of the debate?

predictedNO

@jskf The requirement was tying or passing before the debate, which has occurred. Thanks for playing!

Who the hell supports Nikki Haley?

predictedNO

R: 6%, H 5.9% !!!

predictedYES

@AaronBreckenridge Flip incoming. Where my "collapsing Vivek" bros at?

predictedNO

R: 6.1%, H: 5.6%

predictedNO

R: 5.9%, H: 5.3%

@MarcusAbramovitch I put up limit order for 1k yes at 10% if you want more volume. Expiring in an hour since polls could come out anytime

@EliLifland saw this late

predictedNO

R: 7.4%, H: 5.0%

predictedYES

@AaronBreckenridge We're running out of time for the polls to correct.

R: 7.9%, H: 5.2%

predictedYES

R: 7.0%, H 5.5%

predictedYES

R: 7.8%, H: 6.4%

predictedYES

R: 7.6%, H: 6.1%

predictedYES

Ramaswamy 7.3%, Haley 5.9%

predictedYES

This market is now a little over halfway to close. In that time, Vivek Ramaswamy has lost 3.3% and Nikki Haley has gained 0.5%. They started separated by 4.7% but are now only separated by 0.9%. Could be a nail-biter folks. Expect another market to open after the debate.

predictedYES

Ramaswamy 6.8%, Haley 5.9%

predictedYES

Ramaswamy 7.0%, Haley 6.1%

Ramaswamy 7.4%, Haley 5.6%

Ramaswamy 7.6%, Haley 5.8%

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules