Background
As of 10th March 2025, Elon Musk has approximately 219.5 million followers on X (formerly Twitter). His follower growth rate is estimated to be around 3 million followers per month, or approximately 99,000 followers per day based on recent data.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the date when Elon Musk's X account (@elonmusk) first reaches or exceeds 220 million followers, as displayed on his public profile page.
If Elon Musk reaches 220 million followers on a date not listed among the options, I will add the correct date as an option.
If Elon Musk's account is suspended, deleted, or otherwise becomes unavailable before reaching 220 million followers, this market will resolve N/A.
Considerations
Follower counts can fluctuate due to platform purges of bot accounts or changes in X's counting methodology
Major news events involving Musk could significantly accelerate or decelerate his follower growth rate
Based on his current growth rate, reaching 220 million followers by late March 2025 would not require an acceleration from his typical follower acquisition pace
Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time Zone Clarification:
All relevant dates and times for resolving this market will be interpreted in UTC.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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@ChristopherRandles the end date for this poll has been extended to match all the original poll options
@box I am asking if it occurs 10pm ET 18th which is 2am UTC 19th does this resolve as 18th per UTC or 19th per USA times? I don't see this being clarified in the description.
(The close time of the question suggests you might be on UTC time but this could be unintentional.)