Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?
➕
Plus
66
Ṁ74k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

In A New Deal For Manifold, the staff mentioned that

Users under 18 years of age may no longer be permitted to use the site.

which, if implemented, would mean that I would not be able to use Manifold anymore.

Resolves YES if users under 18 years old can create markets, make bets in mana, be paid out in mana and collect streak/referral bonuses. Resolves NO if they can't do at least one of these actions. If users under 18 years old cannot convert mana into real money, that is irrelevant towards resolution. If Manifold implements KYC for doing one of the above following actions but users under 18 years old cannot be verified, then this market resolves YES.

If Manifold requires verification for accounts over a certain threshold, and users under 18 years old cannot do verification, and it is impossible to bring your account to a state that doesn't require verification after going over the threshold, then this market resolves YES.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
reposted

The terms of service was changed to require users to be over 18... but they added a mana-only terms of service for Manifold recently... that only requires users to be over 13!

The mana-only ToS states:

> The Mana-only portion of the Site is intended for users who are at least 13 years of age, however due to the addition of the Sweepstakes Rules, We may further restrict these Mana-only Terms to remain in compliance with various state and federal sweepstakes regulations. All users who are minors in the jurisdiction in which they reside (generally under the age of 18) must have the permission of, and be directly supervised by, their parent or guardian to use the Site. If you are a minor, you must have your parent or guardian read and agree to these Terms of Use prior to you using the Site.

So here's round 2! If you are a minor, feel free to bet for now!
(can't repost comments with embedded markets, so here's the URL)
https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-users-under-18-years-old-be-al-icwv5g4tbr

From the Sweepskates Beta Announcement:

As an alternative, users who are not eligible for sweepstakes, or who are, but do not wish to complete KYC to claim sweepcash, may email us (info@manifold.markets) by the end of the year and we will be happy to make a charitable donation on their behalf!

In case you want to use your sweepcash before you leave...

bought Ṁ500 NO

@bohaska this can now resolve NO right? like the policy is already in place, so "throughout 2024" is already violated (it's not "at EOY")

@Ziddletwix oh right why did I forget

I feel satisfied and can happily leave

I hope instead of deleting the accounts they just freeze them until the users turn 18

Why is this market suddenly so high?

bought Ṁ300 YES

For users under 18 who didn't lie about their ages, this is well worth simply betting up as close to 100% as possible, since we would lose our accounts if the criteria for this question resolving NO arise and then mana wouldn't matter.

@tauparticle excluding things like the value of mana when you donate it to charity before you leave and discount rates, then yea

opened a Ṁ950 YES at 50% order

Maybe... I mean, if someone else gets the mana, then presumably they'll eventually donate it to charity too at some point. I don't care that much about how much gets donated, anyways.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 40% order

in anticipation of the pivot and because of this market's probability, I just donated 9k mana, or 2/3rds of my net worth, to GiveWell.

bought Ṁ10 YES

If this is actually going to pass I will lead a revolution

bought Ṁ350 YES

@cc6 doubt it

@nikki I read the announcement and I'm going to liquidate and donate to charity. Even if I am allowed to bet I don't want to bet on a real money website due to the risk of gambling addiction

@nikki why did this swing up all of a sudden?

@cc6 vc discussion

@nikki My guess is that roughly because it's getting close to a real money gambling site they're worried about legal liability, and they said this in vc? Something like that?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules