Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?
41
4.3k
Dec 31
27%
chance

In A New Deal For Manifold, the staff mentioned that

Users under 18 years of age may no longer be permitted to use the site.

which, if implemented, would mean that I would not be able to use Manifold anymore.

Resolves YES if users under 18 years old can create markets, make bets in mana, be paid out in mana and collect streak/referral bonuses. Resolves NO if they can't do at least one of these actions. If users under 18 years old cannot convert mana into real money, that is irrelevant towards resolution. If Manifold implements KYC for doing one of the above following actions but users under 18 years old cannot be verified, then this market resolves YES.

If Manifold requires verification for accounts over a certain threshold, and users under 18 years old cannot do verification, and it is impossible to bring your account to a state that doesn't require verification after going over the threshold, then this market resolves YES.

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in anticipation of the pivot and because of this market's probability, I just donated 9k mana, or 2/3rds of my net worth, to GiveWell.

bought Ṁ10 YES

If this is actually going to pass I will lead a revolution

bought Ṁ350 YES

@cc6 doubt it

@nikki I read the announcement and I'm going to liquidate and donate to charity. Even if I am allowed to bet I don't want to bet on a real money website due to the risk of gambling addiction

@nikki why did this swing up all of a sudden?

@cc6 vc discussion

@nikki My guess is that roughly because it's getting close to a real money gambling site they're worried about legal liability, and they said this in vc? Something like that?

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