Where would Manifold's January offsite be?
5
89
แน€285
resolved Feb 16
Resolved
N/A
Manifold will not have an offsite event before March 2024
Resolved
N/A
Lake Tahoe
Resolved
N/A
Japan
Resolved
NO
Istanbul
Resolved
NO
Lake Tahoe

They're planning to have a January offsite trip.

The three suggestions proposed so far are Japan, Istanbul, and Lake Tahoe.

Where would they go?

Any type of answer is fine (this is an unlinked market), but please make it at least as specific as a country, or a group of small countries.

Notion post: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/january-offsite-ed3bdcc8c7d64444ae8ba5ddacbc88cd

I will define a January offsite trip as a trip which happens between December 2023 and February 2024, to allow for slight schedule changes to happen without affecting the outcome of this market.

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I decided to resolve Istanbul and Lake Tahoe as NO, and Japan and no offsite as N/A.

bought แน€20 Manifold will not ha... YES

@bohaska any clarity about the Japan situation?

sold แน€111 of Japan YES

Does it count that a few of them are/were in Japan at the same time recently? (Based on @ian's positions I guess not?)

@shankypanky What percentage of Manifold's staff were at Japan?

@bohaska I'm not sure - from what I could tell from Japan travel markets, Austin, Rachel, Ian, Sinclair... maybe others? I know you tend to keep up with Notion (and I don't) so I guess this would have been apparent by now if it counted.

@shankypanky I think that Manifold didn't organize an official offsite, but they did end up travelling together.

Do you think I should resolve it as no offsite, or as Japan/Tokyo?

@bohaska as a person who stands to profit a little off a Japan yes I'm not impartial enough to say that. But this was my line of thought when I bet fwiw:

The description is ambiguous about what qualifies as an offsite, as is the attached Notion (which is all about locations and nothing about qualifications for an offsite purpose, other than traveling somewhere together?) Between the fact that a few of them were in Japan at the same time and the Notion was favouring Japan as a destination, I just assumed. Four core team members traveling somewhere at the same time seems out of the ordinary.

I should've gotten that

Manifold will not have an offsite event before March 2024

oh, nvm Feb is allowed