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MANIFOLD
How many tweets will Janusz Korwin-Mikke post about Hitler or Holocaust in 2023?
6
Ṁ350Ṁ128
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
N/A

This prediction market resolves based on the number of tweets posted in 2023 by Janusz Korwin-Mikke (on Twitter account @JkmMikke) that include the character strings „Hitler”, „Holocaust”, or „Holokaust” (case insensitive, may have any prefix and suffix).

The outcome will be determined based on data from a reliable source such as Twitter's search function, API and/or archived scrapes of Janusz Korwin-Mikke tweets. The filtered tweet list will be reviewed manually for quality assurance. Both the analysis methods and the resulting tweet list will be published before the final decision. Qualifying but overlooked tweets will be added on requests in comments.

If for any reason evaluation is impossible, the market will resolve N/A.

For example, filtering a current (Jan 2023) snscrape archive for these strings with first-letter case insensitivity results for previous years in:

  • 2022: 59

  • 2021: 36

  • 2020: 10

  • 2019: 9

  • 2018: 17

  • 2017: 8

  • 2016: 3

Since this is just a proof of concept, do not rely fully on these numbers.

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📢Resolved to N/A Per Creator Description "If for any reason evaluation is impossible, the market will resolve N/A."

16 Hitler
4 Holokaust
0 Holocaust

As of my current Nitter searches.

I assume I should be happy I don't speak polish.

@RobertCousineau You have an update to be able to resolve this?