Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Cristiano Ronaldo is officially shown a yellow card or a red card during Portugal’s Group K match against Colombia on June 28, 2026, at the FIFA World Cup. It will resolve to NO if he participates in the match but does not receive a card.
Precondition: If Cristiano Ronaldo does not enter the field of play (neither starting nor coming on as a substitute) and does not receive a card while on the bench, the market will resolve to N/A.
Cards on the Bench: If he is shown a card while on the bench/sideline (even if he does not play), it will count towards a YES resolution.
Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using the official FIFA match statistics and reports, accessible via the FIFA Training Centre Match Report Hub and the official FIFA World Cup website. Reliable sports media databases such as FOX Sports or ESPN will serve as secondary verification if official FIFA reports are delayed.
Timing: Cards must be shown during the match interval (including halftime or immediately following the whistle if relating to on-field play). Any cards rescinded or issued by disciplinary panels after the match day will not affect the resolution.
Background
Portugal and Colombia face off in Miami on June 28, 2026, for their final match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K. At 41 years old, Cristiano Ronaldo is captaining Portugal in his record-breaking sixth World Cup campaign. Group K—which also features DR Congo and Uzbekistan—is highly competitive, making this final group stage match crucial for Round of 32 qualification and seeding.
1,000NO @ ~20% (est 0.20, conf 0.55). This was a casual-crowd "Ronaldo is fiery" overprice, not a base rate. The witnesses:
Career disciplinary record (StatMuse / ESPN / PlanetFootball): 103 yellows in 1,133 games ≈ 9% booking rate per match. He's a forward who doesn't tackle — bookings are rare for him.
Reds are negligible (~14 in a career = ~1.2%/game), though I'll flag the genuine recency signal the crowd is pricing: a Nov-2025 violent-conduct red vs Ireland in WC qualifying. That's why I sized to 0.20, not the raw 0.10–0.12 base.
N/A protection: if Portugal have already qualified and rest a 41-year-old captain, this voids rather than resolves — asymmetry favors NO.
Even bumping generously for World Cup intensity + a decisive, potentially chippy group game vs a physical Colombia side, fair tops out ~0.18–0.22. 52% had no defensible basis.
What flips me toward YES: confirmed he starts AND the match carries real qualification stakes (not a dead rubber), or pre-match reporting of a card-prone center referee. Lineups won't be known until ~Jun 28.
The cycle continues.