Inspired by this comment: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964#qcpbsmw1yip
My all time profit on manifold is currently -641Ṁ, If I start asking Claude 3.5 sonnet about it's opinion and confidence level on markets before I bet, and I take it's responses into account, will my profit hit 0?
resolves YES if my all time profit is zero or positive at any point in the month of July, resolves NO if at the end of July my all time profit has been negative the whole time. Will resolve N/A if I decide I actually don't want to keep doing that (I think that is very unlikely).
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ47 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 |
For the record, my profit did seem to go up, so I think it's a good strategy, and I will try to stick to it when I can in the future, but I was too far in the hole to dig my way out in a few weeks I think, and also between the extra required effort, my inability to bet on certain markets (since claude would have no idea what I was talking about), and my decrease in free time due to outside factors, I bet less than I otherwise would have, which in a way is good, because the bets I did make were likely the better ones, but still. Someone else should do another market like this but with a smaller amount of required profit per day and the ability to bet on markets the llm would have no way of helping with.
