beliefs which do not influence future predictions (ie. ones that can only explain things in retrospect or ones that d...

resolved Aug 6

agree and rationalist

disagree and rationalist

neither disagree nor agree and rationalist

agree and not rationalist

disagree and not rationalist

neither disagree nor agree and not rationalist

poll for this markets resolution
https://manifold.markets/bluerat/which-beliefs-are-the-most-rational
full prompt: beliefs which do not influence future predictions (ie. ones that can only explain things in retrospect or ones that don't explain anything) are useless

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Counterexamples:

Ethical beliefs
True beliefs that have no instrumental value but do have terminal value for those that value truth for its own sake
Beliefs that have instrumental value for psychological or social reasons (e.g., satisfying curiosity about a certain topic, bonding with someone through discussion of philosophy)

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