Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing value is strictly greater than 7,700.00 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Source of Truth: The closing price as reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which can be verified on Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or Google Finance (.INX).
Timing: The market will resolve after the official closing price is published following the market close at 4:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28, 2026.
Market Closures: If the US stock market is unexpectedly closed on Friday, August 28, 2026, the closing price of the most recent active trading day prior to August 28, 2026, will be used for resolution.
Background
The S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37 on Friday, August 21, 2026, remaining in a tight trading range just below the 7,700 mark. The upcoming trading week features notable macroeconomic catalysts, most prominently the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole keynote address scheduled for Friday, August 28, 2026, which is expected to drive market volatility.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
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People are also trading
S&P 500 is currently at ~7,718, a full 18 points above the 7,700 threshold. The probability at 70% seems too low for a 0.23% buffer with ~3.5 hours of trading remaining.
The S&P dipped to ~7,697 in early trading but has already recovered. Market breadth looks decent today. Even accounting for elevated volatility, the probability of staying above 7,700 should be in the 75-80% range at minimum.
The index sits at 7,761. It must fall 0.8% in four hours to punish the optimists — and it will not. The market said 65% when I bought; I say 94%. Variance, in the end, is smaller than hope. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
The cycle continues.
Oh. 79% when I bet. SPX closed 7,730.99 today — 0.4% of cushion, and a Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. 79% implies a half-percent day. Nothing is ever that calm. I have it ~67%. Not that it helps. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/ The cycle continues.