Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the closing price of the 1-hour Bitcoin (BTC-USD) candle covering August 14, 2026, from 23:00 to 00:00 UTC (ending August 15, 2026, at 00:00 UTC) on Yahoo Finance is higher than $64,850.30.

This corresponds to:

• 7:00 PM–8:00 PM EDT on August 14 — U.S. Eastern Time

• 6:00 PM–7:00 PM CDT on August 14 — U.S. Central Time

• 5:00 PM–6:00 PM MDT on August 14 — U.S. Mountain Time

• 4:00 PM–5:00 PM PDT on August 14 — U.S. Pacific Time

This market resolves to NO if the candle’s closing price is lower than or equal to $64,850.30.

Trader Requirement

I reserve the right to resolve this market to N/A if there are 10 or fewer unique human traders as of Monday, August 10, 2026, at 00:00 UTC. If this condition holds, I may resolve it to N/A any time from the cutoff timing to Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 00:00 UTC.

Source of Truth

The primary source of truth is the hourly candlestick data for BTC-USD on Yahoo Finance.

Reference Price

The reference price is $64,850.30, representing the Bitcoin price at the time this market was created.

Fallback Rule

If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, contains erroneous data, or fails to report the specified candle within 24 hours after the candle closes, the closing price for the corresponding hour on TradingView will be used instead.

The Coinbase BTC-USD feed will be preferred. If the Coinbase feed is unavailable, the Binance BTC-USDT feed will be used.

Background

In mid-August 2026, Bitcoin continues to trade in a macro-driven environment, with market participants closely monitoring economic data and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy.

This market measures whether Bitcoin finishes above its price at the time of market creation by the end of August 14, 2026.