How biased is this coin?
40
1.1kṀ3145
9999
45%
chance

This market resolves to the value of p(heads) (the probability of flipping heads) for a biased coin. The probability will be multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage.

The first 3 flips are shown. I will flip the coin again once per day and update the results. If I forget to update the description, please remind me to do so.

Anyone who has bet at least 1000 mana on this question can DM me or publicly comment asking for the market to be resolved.

p(heads) was sampled uniformly randomly between 0 and 1. The salted sha256 hash of p(heads) is: 5c0d2da2236bcccb8c47653ec4860a113266e65d95c9d341b4eea720e5b06525.

When the market resolves, I will publish:

- The plaintext message used to generate the hash

- The Python code used to generate the model so the results can be independently verified

Start: 2024-08-25
Timestamp: 2025-01-04
Elapsed: 132
Samples: 587

Flip  Date        Res  p_hat
 1    2024-08-25  T    0.00
 2    2024-08-25  H    0.50
 3    2024-08-25  H    0.67
 4    2024-08-26  T    0.50
 5    2024-08-27  H    0.60
 6    2024-08-28  T    0.50
 7    2024-08-29  T    0.43
 8    2024-08-30  H    0.50
 9    2024-08-31  T    0.44
10    2024-09-01  T    0.40
11    2024-09-02  H    0.45
12    2024-09-03  T    0.42
13    2024-09-04  T    0.38
14    2024-09-05  H    0.43
15    2024-09-06  H    0.47
16    2024-09-07  T    0.44
17    2024-09-08  H    0.47
18    2024-09-09  H    0.50
19    2024-09-10  H    0.53
20    2024-09-11  H    0.55
21    2024-09-12  T    0.52
22    2024-09-13  T    0.50
23    2024-09-14  T    0.48
24    2024-09-14  H    0.50
25    2024-09-14  T    0.48
26    2024-09-14  T    0.46
27    2024-09-14  T    0.44
28    2024-09-15  T    0.43
29    2024-09-15  T    0.41
30    2024-09-15  H    0.43
31    2024-09-15  T    0.42
32    2024-09-15  H    0.44
33    2024-09-16  H    0.45
34    2024-09-16  T    0.44
35    2024-09-16  H    0.46
36    2024-09-16  H    0.47
37    2024-09-16  H    0.49
38    2024-09-17  H    0.50
39    2024-09-17  H    0.51
40    2024-09-17  H    0.53
41    2024-09-17  T    0.51
42    2024-09-17  T    0.50
43    2024-09-18  H    0.51
44    2024-09-18  T    0.50
45    2024-09-18  T    0.49
46    2024-09-18  T    0.48
47    2024-09-18  H    0.49
48    2024-09-19  T    0.48
49    2024-09-19  H    0.49
50    2024-09-19  H    0.50
51    2024-09-19  H    0.51
52    2024-09-19  T    0.50
53    2024-09-20  H    0.51
54    2024-09-20  T    0.50
55    2024-09-20  H    0.51
56    2024-09-20  H    0.52
57    2024-09-20  H    0.53
58    2024-09-21  T    0.52
59    2024-09-21  T    0.51
60    2024-09-21  H    0.52
61    2024-09-21  H    0.52
62    2024-09-21  H    0.53
63    2024-09-22  H    0.54
64    2024-09-22  H    0.55
65    2024-09-22  T    0.54
66    2024-09-22  T    0.53
67    2024-09-22  H    0.54
68    2024-09-23  T    0.53
69    2024-09-23  H    0.54
70    2024-09-23  H    0.54
71    2024-09-23  H    0.55
72    2024-09-23  T    0.54
73    2024-09-24  H    0.55
74    2024-09-24  H    0.55
75    2024-09-24  T    0.55
76    2024-09-24  T    0.54
77    2024-09-24  T    0.53
78    2024-09-25  T    0.53
79    2024-09-25  H    0.53
80    2024-09-25  H    0.54
81    2024-09-25  H    0.54
82    2024-09-25  T    0.54
83    2024-09-26  T    0.53
84    2024-09-26  T    0.52
85    2024-09-26  T    0.52
86    2024-09-26  T    0.51
87    2024-09-26  T    0.51
88    2024-09-27  T    0.50
89    2024-09-27  H    0.51
90    2024-09-27  T    0.50
91    2024-09-27  H    0.51
92    2024-09-27  T    0.50
93    2024-09-28  H    0.51
94    2024-09-28  H    0.51
95    2024-09-28  T    0.51
96    2024-09-28  T    0.50
97    2024-09-28  T    0.49
98    2024-09-29  H    0.50
99    2024-09-29  H    0.51
100    2024-09-29  T    0.50
101    2024-09-29  T    0.50
102    2024-09-29  T    0.49
103    2024-09-30  T    0.49
104    2024-09-30  H    0.49
105    2024-09-30  T    0.49
106    2024-09-30  H    0.49
107    2024-09-30  T    0.49
108    2024-10-01  H    0.49
109    2024-10-01  H    0.50
110    2024-10-01  T    0.49
111    2024-10-01  T    0.49
112    2024-10-01  T    0.48
113    2024-10-02  T    0.48
114    2024-10-02  T    0.47
115    2024-10-02  H    0.48
116    2024-10-02  T    0.47
117    2024-10-02  T    0.47
118    2024-10-03  T    0.47
119    2024-10-03  H    0.47
120    2024-10-03  T    0.47
121    2024-10-03  T    0.46
122    2024-10-03  T    0.46
123    2024-10-04  T    0.46
124    2024-10-04  H    0.46
125    2024-10-04  T    0.46
126    2024-10-04  T    0.45
127    2024-10-04  H    0.46
128    2024-10-05  T    0.45
129    2024-10-05  T    0.45
130    2024-10-05  H    0.45
131    2024-10-05  T    0.45
132    2024-10-05  T    0.45
133    2024-10-06  H    0.45
134    2024-10-06  T    0.45
135    2024-10-06  T    0.44
136    2024-10-06  T    0.44
137    2024-10-06  H    0.45
138    2024-10-07  T    0.44
139    2024-10-07  H    0.45
140    2024-10-07  H    0.45
141    2024-10-07  T    0.45
142    2024-10-07  H    0.45
143    2024-10-08  T    0.45
144    2024-10-08  T    0.44
145    2024-10-08  T    0.44
146    2024-10-08  H    0.45
147    2024-10-08  H    0.45
148    2024-10-09  H    0.45
149    2024-10-09  H    0.46
150    2024-10-09  T    0.45
151    2024-10-09  T    0.45
152    2024-10-09  H    0.45
153    2024-10-10  T    0.45
154    2024-10-10  T    0.45
155    2024-10-10  T    0.45
156    2024-10-10  H    0.45
157    2024-10-10  H    0.45
158    2024-10-11  T    0.45
159    2024-10-11  H    0.45
160    2024-10-11  T    0.45
161    2024-10-11  H    0.45
162    2024-10-11  T    0.45
163    2024-10-12  H    0.45
164    2024-10-12  T    0.45
165    2024-10-12  T    0.45
166    2024-10-12  T    0.45
167    2024-10-12  H    0.45
168    2024-10-13  H    0.45
169    2024-10-13  T    0.45
170    2024-10-13  H    0.45
171    2024-10-13  T    0.45
172    2024-10-13  H    0.45
173    2024-10-14  H    0.46
174    2024-10-14  T    0.45
175    2024-10-14  T    0.45
176    2024-10-14  T    0.45
177    2024-10-14  T    0.45
178    2024-10-15  H    0.45
179    2024-10-15  H    0.45
180    2024-10-15  T    0.45
181    2024-10-15  T    0.45
182    2024-10-15  H    0.45
183    2024-10-16  H    0.45
184    2024-10-16  T    0.45
185    2024-10-16  H    0.45
186    2024-10-16  T    0.45
187    2024-10-16  T    0.45
188    2024-10-17  T    0.45
189    2024-10-17  H    0.45
190    2024-10-17  H    0.45
191    2024-10-17  T    0.45
192    2024-10-17  T    0.45
193    2024-10-18  T    0.45
194    2024-10-18  H    0.45
195    2024-10-18  H    0.45
196    2024-10-18  T    0.45
197    2024-10-18  T    0.45
198    2024-10-19  T    0.44
199    2024-10-19  H    0.45
200    2024-10-19  T    0.45
201    2024-10-19  T    0.44
202    2024-10-19  T    0.44
203    2024-10-20  T    0.44
204    2024-10-20  H    0.44
205    2024-10-20  H    0.44
206    2024-10-20  H    0.45
207    2024-10-20  T    0.44
208    2024-10-21  H    0.45
209    2024-10-21  T    0.44
210    2024-10-21  T    0.44
211    2024-10-21  T    0.44
212    2024-10-21  T    0.44
213    2024-10-22  T    0.44
214    2024-10-22  T    0.43
215    2024-10-22  T    0.43
216    2024-10-22  T    0.43
217    2024-10-22  H    0.43
218    2024-10-23  H    0.44
219    2024-10-23  H    0.44
220    2024-10-23  T    0.44
221    2024-10-23  T    0.43
222    2024-10-23  T    0.43
223    2024-10-24  H    0.43
224    2024-10-24  T    0.43
225    2024-10-24  H    0.44
226    2024-10-24  T    0.43
227    2024-10-24  T    0.43
228    2024-10-25  T    0.43
229    2024-10-25  T    0.43
230    2024-10-25  T    0.43
231    2024-10-25  T    0.42
232    2024-10-25  H    0.43
233    2024-10-26  T    0.42
234    2024-10-26  H    0.43
235    2024-10-26  T    0.43
236    2024-10-26  T    0.42
237    2024-10-26  T    0.42
238    2024-10-27  H    0.42
239    2024-10-27  T    0.42
240    2024-10-27  H    0.42
241    2024-10-27  H    0.43
242    2024-10-27  H    0.43
243    2024-10-28  H    0.43
244    2024-10-28  H    0.43
245    2024-10-28  T    0.43
246    2024-10-28  T    0.43
247    2024-10-28  T    0.43
248    2024-10-29  T    0.43
249    2024-10-29  H    0.43
250    2024-10-29  H    0.43
251    2024-10-29  T    0.43
252    2024-10-29  T    0.43
253    2024-10-30  T    0.43
254    2024-10-30  H    0.43
255    2024-10-30  H    0.43
256    2024-10-30  T    0.43
257    2024-10-30  T    0.43
258    2024-10-31  H    0.43
259    2024-10-31  H    0.43
260    2024-10-31  T    0.43
261    2024-10-31  H    0.43
262    2024-10-31  T    0.43
263    2024-11-01  T    0.43
264    2024-11-01  H    0.43
265    2024-11-01  H    0.43
266    2024-11-01  H    0.44
267    2024-11-01  T    0.43
268    2024-11-02  T    0.43
269    2024-11-02  T    0.43
270    2024-11-02  T    0.43
271    2024-11-02  H    0.43
272    2024-11-02  H    0.43
273    2024-11-03  T    0.43
274    2024-11-03  T    0.43
275    2024-11-03  H    0.43
276    2024-11-03  T    0.43
277    2024-11-03  T    0.43
278    2024-11-04  H    0.43
279    2024-11-04  H    0.43
280    2024-11-04  H    0.44
281    2024-11-04  T    0.43
282    2024-11-04  T    0.43
283    2024-11-05  T    0.43
284    2024-11-05  T    0.43
285    2024-11-05  H    0.43
286    2024-11-05  H    0.43
287    2024-11-05  T    0.43
288    2024-11-06  T    0.43
289    2024-11-06  H    0.43
290    2024-11-06  T    0.43
291    2024-11-06  T    0.43
292    2024-11-06  H    0.43
293    2024-11-07  T    0.43
294    2024-11-07  T    0.43
295    2024-11-07  H    0.43
296    2024-11-07  T    0.43
297    2024-11-07  H    0.43
298    2024-11-08  T    0.43
299    2024-11-08  T    0.43
300    2024-11-08  T    0.43
301    2024-11-08  T    0.43
302    2024-11-08  H    0.43
303    2024-11-09  T    0.43
304    2024-11-09  H    0.43
305    2024-11-09  H    0.43
306    2024-11-09  T    0.43
307    2024-11-09  T    0.43
308    2024-11-10  T    0.43
309    2024-11-10  H    0.43
310    2024-11-10  H    0.43
311    2024-11-10  T    0.43
312    2024-11-10  T    0.43
313    2024-11-11  H    0.43
314    2024-11-11  H    0.43
315    2024-11-11  H    0.43
316    2024-11-11  T    0.43
317    2024-11-11  T    0.43
318    2024-11-12  T    0.43
319    2024-11-12  T    0.43
320    2024-11-12  H    0.43
321    2024-11-12  T    0.43
322    2024-11-12  T    0.43
323    2024-11-13  T    0.42
324    2024-11-13  H    0.43
325    2024-11-13  H    0.43
326    2024-11-13  T    0.43
327    2024-11-13  H    0.43
328    2024-11-14  H    0.43
329    2024-11-14  T    0.43
330    2024-11-14  T    0.43
331    2024-11-14  T    0.43
332    2024-11-14  T    0.42
333    2024-11-15  H    0.43
334    2024-11-15  H    0.43
335    2024-11-15  T    0.43
336    2024-11-15  H    0.43
337    2024-11-15  T    0.43
338    2024-11-16  T    0.43
339    2024-11-16  T    0.42
340    2024-11-16  T    0.42
341    2024-11-16  H    0.43
342    2024-11-16  T    0.42
343    2024-11-17  H    0.43
344    2024-11-17  T    0.42
345    2024-11-17  T    0.42
346    2024-11-17  T    0.42
347    2024-11-17  H    0.42
348    2024-11-18  H    0.43
349    2024-11-18  T    0.42
350    2024-11-18  H    0.43
351    2024-11-18  T    0.42
352    2024-11-18  T    0.42
353    2024-11-19  T    0.42
354    2024-11-19  H    0.42
355    2024-11-19  H    0.43
356    2024-11-19  H    0.43
357    2024-11-19  T    0.43
358    2024-11-20  T    0.42
359    2024-11-20  H    0.43
360    2024-11-20  H    0.43
361    2024-11-20  H    0.43
362    2024-11-20  T    0.43
363    2024-11-21  H    0.43
364    2024-11-21  T    0.43
365    2024-11-21  T    0.43
366    2024-11-21  H    0.43
367    2024-11-21  T    0.43
368    2024-11-22  T    0.43
369    2024-11-22  T    0.43
370    2024-11-22  H    0.43
371    2024-11-22  H    0.43
372    2024-11-22  H    0.43
373    2024-11-23  H    0.43
374    2024-11-23  H    0.43
375    2024-11-23  T    0.43
376    2024-11-23  H    0.43
377    2024-11-23  T    0.43
378    2024-11-24  T    0.43
379    2024-11-24  T    0.43
380    2024-11-24  H    0.43
381    2024-11-24  H    0.43
382    2024-11-24  H    0.43
383    2024-11-25  T    0.43
384    2024-11-25  T    0.43
385    2024-11-25  T    0.43
386    2024-11-25  T    0.43
387    2024-11-25  H    0.43
388    2024-11-26  T    0.43
389    2024-11-26  H    0.43
390    2024-11-26  T    0.43
391    2024-11-26  T    0.43
392    2024-11-26  T    0.43
393    2024-11-27  H    0.43
394    2024-11-27  T    0.43
395    2024-11-27  T    0.43
396    2024-11-27  T    0.43
397    2024-11-27  H    0.43
398    2024-11-28  T    0.43
399    2024-11-28  H    0.43
400    2024-11-28  T    0.43
401    2024-11-28  T    0.43
402    2024-11-28  T    0.43
403    2024-11-29  H    0.43
404    2024-11-29  T    0.43
405    2024-11-29  T    0.42
406    2024-11-29  T    0.42
407    2024-11-29  H    0.43
408    2024-11-30  T    0.42
409    2024-11-30  T    0.42
410    2024-11-30  H    0.42
411    2024-11-30  H    0.43
412    2024-11-30  T    0.42
413    2024-12-01  T    0.42
414    2024-12-01  H    0.43
415    2024-12-01  H    0.43
416    2024-12-01  T    0.43
417    2024-12-01  T    0.42
418    2024-12-02  T    0.42
419    2024-12-02  T    0.42
420    2024-12-02  H    0.42
421    2024-12-02  H    0.43
422    2024-12-02  T    0.42
423    2024-12-03  H    0.43
424    2024-12-03  T    0.42
425    2024-12-03  T    0.42
426    2024-12-03  H    0.42
427    2024-12-03  T    0.42
428    2024-12-04  T    0.42
429    2024-12-04  T    0.42
430    2024-12-04  H    0.42
431    2024-12-04  T    0.42
432    2024-12-04  T    0.42
433    2024-12-05  T    0.42
434    2024-12-05  H    0.42
435    2024-12-05  H    0.42
436    2024-12-05  T    0.42
437    2024-12-05  T    0.42
438    2024-12-06  H    0.42
439    2024-12-06  H    0.42
440    2024-12-06  H    0.42
441    2024-12-06  H    0.43
442    2024-12-06  T    0.43
443    2024-12-07  H    0.43
444    2024-12-07  H    0.43
445    2024-12-07  H    0.43
446    2024-12-07  T    0.43
447    2024-12-07  H    0.43
448    2024-12-08  H    0.43
449    2024-12-08  T    0.43
450    2024-12-08  H    0.43
451    2024-12-08  T    0.43
452    2024-12-08  H    0.43
453    2024-12-09  T    0.43
454    2024-12-09  H    0.43
455    2024-12-09  H    0.43
456    2024-12-09  T    0.43
457    2024-12-09  H    0.43
458    2024-12-10  H    0.43
459    2024-12-10  T    0.43
460    2024-12-10  H    0.43
461    2024-12-10  H    0.44
462    2024-12-10  H    0.44
463    2024-12-11  T    0.44
464    2024-12-11  T    0.44
465    2024-12-11  T    0.43
466    2024-12-11  T    0.43
467    2024-12-11  H    0.43
468    2024-12-12  H    0.44
469    2024-12-12  H    0.44
470    2024-12-12  H    0.44
471    2024-12-12  T    0.44
472    2024-12-12  H    0.44
473    2024-12-13  H    0.44
474    2024-12-13  H    0.44
475    2024-12-13  H    0.44
476    2024-12-13  H    0.44
477    2024-12-13  T    0.44
478    2024-12-14  H    0.44
479    2024-12-14  H    0.44
480    2024-12-14  H    0.45
481    2024-12-14  H    0.45
482    2024-12-14  H    0.45
483    2024-12-15  H    0.45
484    2024-12-15  T    0.45
485    2024-12-15  T    0.45
486    2024-12-15  T    0.45
487    2024-12-15  H    0.45
488    2024-12-16  H    0.45
489    2024-12-16  H    0.45
490    2024-12-16  T    0.45
491    2024-12-16  T    0.45
492    2024-12-16  H    0.45
493    2024-12-17  T    0.45
494    2024-12-17  H    0.45
495    2024-12-17  T    0.45
496    2024-12-17  T    0.45
497    2024-12-17  T    0.45
498    2024-12-18  H    0.45
499    2024-12-18  H    0.45
500    2024-12-18  H    0.45
501    2024-12-18  T    0.45
502    2024-12-18  H    0.45
503    2024-12-19  T    0.45
504    2024-12-19  T    0.45
505    2024-12-19  H    0.45
506    2024-12-19  T    0.45
507    2024-12-19  T    0.45
508    2024-12-20  T    0.45
509    2024-12-20  H    0.45
510    2024-12-20  T    0.45
511    2024-12-20  H    0.45
512    2024-12-20  H    0.45
513    2024-12-21  T    0.45
514    2024-12-21  H    0.45
515    2024-12-21  T    0.45
516    2024-12-21  T    0.45
517    2024-12-21  T    0.45
518    2024-12-22  T    0.45
519    2024-12-22  T    0.45
520    2024-12-22  T    0.44
521    2024-12-22  T    0.44
522    2024-12-22  T    0.44
523    2024-12-23  T    0.44
524    2024-12-23  T    0.44

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