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MANIFOLD
Will Butlerian Jihad happen
17
Ṁ1kṀ2.6k
2100
12%
chance

Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind

In the Dune books there was an event called 'Butlerian Jihad' https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad

This marker it about will something like 'Butlerian Jihad' occer in real life.

It is hard to explicitly explain what is 'something like'. I'm thinking of serveal points:


  • there are very serious problems because of the 'thinking machine technology' (AI)

  • the rules are created that limits the development and production of AI

  • and the rules are actually working, there are no machines 'in the likeness of a human mind'


Betting rules. I can bet on this market.

Resolving rules. I'm setting the closing date of this market far in the future.
I'm not going to change to closing date. If after the closing date this event does not happen this market should be resolved as NO (I'm pretty sure that I will not be able to resolve this marker after the closing date, so I'm asking the moderators to do this resolution after this market closes). This market can be closed and resolved early only in case the described event happens, then this market should be resolved as YES (here I'm also asking moderators to resolve this market if there are clear indications that this has happened, but I'm not resolving this market)

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I am reading this such that this happening in a substantial region would count, but not a tiny enclave. So as an example the Amish would not count, but a significant chunk of the Islamic world would be a clear yes, as would the Catholic Church putting a similar prohibition on it as on abortion or contraception? Am I in the ballpark?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes, I generally agree with your interpretation of the scale. The impact would have to be massive.

They wanted a laptop for every child on the globe, instead we got AI that’s smarter than most of the globe 🌎