Will the MEDIAN number of shares held by traders of this market be less than 200?

100Ṁ1301

Apr 21

99%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the median number of shares held at market close by traders is below 200. Resolves NO otherwise (including if the median is exactly 200).

Fun

Meta-markets

Meta-Forecasting

Get

1,000

to start trading!

4 Comments

13 Holders

16 Trades

Sort by:

I meant for the market close date to be one month out, but looks like I set it at one YEAR out?! Adjusted this, but let me know if this affects any of your betting strategies (lol it doesn't)

Wow this crashed and burned lol. I really thought this would reach equilibrium... XD

@bens Probably 200 is too high. Maybe with a lower threshold, people would be more inclined to buy NO. 🤔 There was more up and down, here: https://manifold.markets/carterallen/will-the-median-number-of-shares-he-Oqnpz5EgdS

Will the median number of shares held in this market exceed 50?

18% chance.

Suggestion to traders: create a limit order for NO of exactly 200 shares.

Related questions

Related questions