Resolves YES if by a year after the current release date (Sep 16, 2026), JD Vance has mentioned reading (even part of) the new book "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies."
Also resolves YES if some event occurs that strongly implies that he has read it (he has a meeting with the author, or a copy of the book is photographed on his desk with a bookmark, or Usha Vance says he has read it, or whatever). That is to say, it doesn't have to be an official declaration from his mouth.
This market inspired by his recent remarks in an interview with the NYTimes that he had read AI-2027.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/opinion/jd-vance-pope-trump-immigration.html
Here is book information: https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/?ref=nsxmay
I will not bet in this market to remain objective. If there is some edge case, I may resolve to PROB at the end of the time window, resolving to my subjective probability of this market. Things that might result in such ambiguity:
He quotes from the book but doesn't mention having read it and it's possible he got the quote from someone else who had read it.
He mentions reading a book where there's ambiguity as to whether he meant this book or a similar book.
Someone who knows him well (Usha? Trump? Whatever) says they "think that he read it" or something vague.
etc...
Good question! Looking forward to seeing bets on this.