Currently there's a minor scandal involving RFK Jr. where he claims to have found a bear cub hit by someone else's car, driven it to Central Park, and left it, for... complicated reasons:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/04/politics/rfk-jr-bear-central-park/index.html
I think there's a possibility he's trying to get ahead of a scandal whereby he himself will be the one accused of causing the death of the bear cub.
This resolves based on the preponderance of evidence (>50% likelihood). I will use my own judgment to resolve it, and will consult with other respectable Manifold users if necessary. If it's truly intractable to resolve based on a preponderance of evidence, I will consider resolving to 50% or a PROB, but I would strongly prefer to resolve YES or NO.
As to how broadly I will consider what it means to "cause the death" of the bear cub, I will try to resolve in the spirit of the question. If RFK Jr. is hiding his role in the bear cub's death and it turned out he played even a minor role (swerved into traffic and another car hit it, or something like this) I will likely resolve YES.
I've set the resolution time for a month from now, but I will extend the date if necessary to reach a good conclusion!
I will obviously not bet in this market, so as to remain unbiased about the resolution.
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I still keep imagining something like the plot of the 1990s film 'The Freshman' - where rich people are dining on exotic animals in a NYC speakeasy but the show bear gets loose and gets hit by a car then RFK has to hide evidence of the exotic dining by dragging the bear into some bushes.
Two possible versions of the story -
RFK's version:
you see random road kill sitting there for an unknown amount of time
you think "wow that's good eat'n" with no evidence of whether it was sick or anything before death and no idea how long it was there on the side of the road
a series of increasingly illogical and bizarre decisions follow ending up with the bear in central park with a bicycle thrown on it because despite wanting to eat it you completely forgot about your imminent travel plans and, despite being the sort of person you collects random roadkill to eat, you have actual way to refrigerate it, butcher it, etc.
You don't tell anyone at the dinner party about the amazing find your happened upon on the side of the road despite clearly being so into it that you have it rotting in your car rather than even attempting to give it to a friend, put it on ice, etc.
An alternative version:
you kill a bear cub accidentally or purposely, potentially while hunting
put the carcass in your car knowing it was a fresh kill either to use yourself or out of panic due to not having a hunting license and not wanting to arouse suspicion/get reported by anyone you drive quickly to make a dinner party but don't tell anyone there about the incident
knowing you are leaving the city immediately, so you won't be an easy suspect to track down, you dump it in central park either out of continued panic and lack of planning or as a purposeful prank
The first story seems less likely to me than the second.
An aside—it seems to me the quality of third party candidates has gotten consistently worse over my lifetime:
Ross Perot might have won but had the foresight/diffidence to not trigger a 12th amendment contingent election fiasco.
Ralph Nader could have told people to vote strategically to get 5% for the Greens, but instead ran more like a spoiler.
Gary Johnson stuck his tongue out, and didn’t know Aleppo was in Syria.
RFK Jr. had a brain worm, and less than a decade ago his better judgement told him to fake the death of a bear cub in Central Park by a cyclist after he procured the cub under suspicious circumstances and drove around with it for the better part of a day.
Woah. It’s crazy there really was a dead bear carcass in Central Park in 2014. https://www.outdoorhub.com/news/2014/10/07/black-bear-cub-mysteriously-found-dead-new-york-citys-central-park/
This feels too Wag the Dog…. But I guess I don’t have a reason to doubt it.
