Will the Walz-Vance debate shift the election's odds on Polymarket by 1%?
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แน€1434
Oct 2
60%
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This resolves YES if either the Kamala YES price or the Trump YES price changes by at least 1.0 cent at https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election.

Resolution will be based on the price with decimals included at the first minute of the debate compared to the price on the last minute of the debate. The first and last minutes are determined by when either VP candidate says their first or last words. A temporary spike during the debate is not enough to resolve YES.

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Also, heads up that I'll be traveling when the debate happens so it might take me up to 24h to resolve this.

Just to be super clear about the resolution criteria, if a VP candidate first spoke at the debate at 6:15am today (50.95%) and the candidates' last word was spoken at 7:05am (49.95%), this would resolve YES. But if a candidate last spoke at 7:07am (50.00%), this would resolve NO.

These screenshots are of Kamala YES shares, because her shares moved by a larger amount. But either Trump's or Kamala's could resolve this question YES.