This resolves to YES if Manifolds adds a new answer type that allows people to enter a date as a prediction, similar to Metaculus. (e.g. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/)
Note: the new answer type does not need to support a continuous range, like Metaculus', but must be a distinct answer type from the existing types. The current answer types are "Yes/No" and "Free Response".
Magnus Hambleton bought M$10 of YES7 days ago
I would very much like something like what metaculus has, but with a better implementation
Range markets would help as in “how many days until” with 0-10, 11-20 and so on. Date range markets could add sugar to that but I think range markets alone would suffice.
I would resolve YES for "scalar" or "range" answer types, as long as dates are explicitly supported -- e.g. a datepicker in the UI vs. treating dates as text, as many markets currently do
Austin bought M$10 of YES15 days ago
Would a scalar/numeric type that works well for dates also be counted here? We've discussed something like a numeric/scalar type, eg having multiple exclusive categories you can bet on: https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-will-range-markets-work-in-mani
Dates are a bit weirder though, because they resolve continuously -- maybe a good fit for continuous partial resolution https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-partial-resolution-of-yesno-ma
See also comments on https://manifold.markets/noumena/by-what-date-will-users-be-able-to