How much of the popular vote will Trump get [resolves to %]?

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resolved Dec 21

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50%

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How much of the national popular vote will Donald Trump receive in the 2024 presidential election? This is defined as the number of Trump votes divided by the total number of votes. This market will resolve to the nearest integer % to this value.

Resolves a couple days after CNN's final numbers come out.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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nvm

Update: switched to CNN

Arb:

Do you know when the FEC report is scheduled to be released? the 2020 report wasn't released until 2022

@Nightsquared I'm really not sure. If you could suggest another accurate source that is timely, that would be helpful. I'm definitely not planning to wait until 2026. That would be kinda sad.

@bagelfan News sources like NYT have vote trackers that keep track of popular vote tallies, and states have to certify results by sometime in December (Dec 11 I think) so the tally should be final by then

@Nightsquared NYT is paywalled though.

@bagelfan I think CNN does it too

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