How many states will Trump flip in 2024 [cumulative]?

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Ṁ13k

Nov 5

ALL

89%

At least 1 state

83%

At least 2 states

83%

At least 3 states

69%

At least 4 states

41%

At least 5 states

30%

At least 6 states

At least 7 states

At least 8 states

1.5%

At least 9 states

At least 10 states

How many states will Donald Trump flip in 2024 (from 2020 baseline)? This doesn't include DC or split electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska, it's just based on who wins the whole state.

If the Republican nominee changes to be someone else, the question will be about the new nominee.

Binary version:

Harris market:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Trump

#Republican Party

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this market seems to hugely disagree about the election odds compared to the main us election since its impossible for trump to win without flipping 2 states and flipping 2 states is a 34% and trumps odds of victory are ~45% and this doesnt even consider the chances of 2 states getting flipped without trump winning

@ConnorWhite Then place a bet to earn some profit!

At least 3 states

10% seems absurdly low because I only see one scenario where he flips less than three states and still wins the election (PA, GA). This market puts Trump winning outright at an unrealistically low level.

@traders I made a version for Kamala Harris as well, but in a different format.

@traders I'm moving forward the close date to be before rather than after the election, so people can't just trade with knowledge of the result.

Upgraded to Basic

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