How many states will Donald Trump flip in 2024 (from 2020 baseline)? This doesn't include DC or split electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska, it's just based on who wins the whole state.

If the Republican nominee changes to be someone else, the question will be about the new nominee.

Binary version:

Harris market:

this market seems to hugely disagree about the election odds compared to the main us election since its impossible for trump to win without flipping 2 states and flipping 2 states is a 34% and trumps odds of victory are ~45% and this doesnt even consider the chances of 2 states getting flipped without trump winning

@traders I'm moving forward the close date to be before rather than after the election, so people can't just trade with knowledge of the result.