This question will resolve based on UTC (GMT+0), and the date of exact time, that either an email (from noreply@stake) or a Telegram post from the official channel regarding the availability and release of the so-named ('September Monthly Bonus') bonus is sent or posted. As I use the Telegram post time to the second for my chart, that is the first source of truth, however if they occur over a day change (11:59 and 12:01, for example), the Telegram post will take priority, whichever it is. The UNIX timestamp from exporting Telegram channels will be used primarily.

I will not post a telegram link here since that's weird, but I am using the official one, not any unofficial/scam ones that copy it and end up being later.

I continue to specify that this is when the .com site gets its bonus. I will be making a second market for the .us site probably this month for fun.

If there is no bonus specifically called a monthly bonus by end of day on September 30th 2025, when the clock rolls over UTC, this question will resolve as the final option, 'Never/The September Monthly will not release in September'. If in a public release Stake specifically mentions it will not happen, it will resolve also resolve to the last option, 'Never/The September Monthly will not release in September'.

Some dates are grouped if I judge them to be low probability, mostly before/after the main week

If it's announced it is cancelled, the market will remain open until the posted end time of end of day September 30th; in case they walk back their decision, and it still releases in September.

This does not resolve if it is a post-monthly or pre-monthly bonus, or some other bonus not related to the eponymous and so-desired Monthly Bonus.

I will participate for the first week of this market. I tend to get insider information closer to the day of, and I will refrain from betting as we get closer.

Here's a whole list of the dates of these bonuses, based on the Telegram announcement posts for Stake's main site, along with some random stats.

^

A heat map of the most common day of the month the drops were, overlapping the September 2025 calendar month with already elapsed days crossed out:

This creates a nice probability distribution centered around the 13th of each month.

Another chart I picked at random:

Full List:

AI GENERATED NONSENSE INSTEAD OF MY NONSENSE:

🤣

Resolution criteria

• Resolves to the single answer matching the UTC calendar date of the first qualifying public announcement that the Stake.com “September Monthly Bonus” is available/released.

• Primary source: the official Stake.com Telegram channel; the Telegram message timestamp (to the second) will be used, converted to UTC. If both Telegram and email announcements exist on different UTC dates, Telegram takes precedence. (telegram.me)

• Backup source (only if no qualifying Telegram post occurs in September 2025 UTC): the first qualifying promotional email sent from noreply@stake.com or noreply@mail.stake.com; the email’s sent time per headers will be used (UTC).

• Cutoff: If no qualifying announcement occurs by 2025-09-30 23:59:59 UTC, resolves to “Never/The September Monthly will not release in September.” (Note: September has 30 days, not 31.) (Ruby reply: yeah ok buddy i copied my last draft ok gosh)

• Scope: Stake.com only (Stake.us excluded). Pre-monthly, post-monthly, reloads, teasers, or non-“Monthly Bonus” promos do not count. If Stake publicly states the September Monthly will not be released, resolve to “Never…” unless a qualifying release subsequently occurs before the cutoff.

• Verification links for resolution: (Edited: at request of author; will not post stake links directly)

Background

• Stake.com routinely announces promos via its official Telegram channel and marketing emails; the Monthly Bonus is a recurring promo for existing users.

• Community tracking suggests Monthly Bonus drops often occur mid‑month, but exact dates vary.

Considerations

• Many fake Telegram groups exist; only posts from @StakeCasino count. Ignore ads/forwards/scam channels.

• Telegram shows local time by default; resolution uses the UTC date derived from the message’s UNIX timestamp.

• Answers are exhaustive and mutually exclusive (dependent multiple choice). Exact dates resolve by the UTC date of the qualifying announcement; ranges resolve if the UTC date falls within the range.