This question will resolve based on UTC (GMT+0), and the date of exact time, whichever is earlier, that either an email or a Telegram post from the official channel regarding this ('May Monthly Bonus') bonus is sent or posted.
This time, I am specifying that this is when the **.com site** gets its bonus. The US site tends to get it one day early, which is sometimes an odd day, and the data I am presenting here is for .com, so we will be considering that only. Thus, if you hear that the bonus will be on x day- it may actually be on the x+1 day. However, there have been times where it released first.
If there is no bonus specifically called a monthly bonus by end of day on May 31st 2025, UTC, this question will resolve as the final option, after 31st/Never. If in a public release Stake specifically mentions it will not happen, it will resolve also resolve to the last option, 'After May 31st/Never'.
If it's announced it is cancelled, the market will remain open until June 1st; in case they walk back their decision, and it still releases in May.
This does not resolve if it is a post-monthly or pre-monthly bonus, or some other bonus not related to the eponymous reward.
Note 1: In the options, Friday and Saturday are combined because (going by UTC time), there has never been a monthly on a Saturday, and very few on Fridays, and the most recent Friday bonus was May 2022. If we go by EST, then there has never been a monthly on a Friday or Saturday, as those were released very early in the morning UTC Friday, not later.
I will participate in this market as I have no control over when this happens, but I probably won't abuse it too much.
Wen?
Here's a whole list of the dates of these bonuses, based on the Telegram announcement posts for Stake's main site, along with some random stats.
^
A heatmap of the most common day of the month the drops were, overlayed on the May 2025 calendar month with already elapsed days crossed out:
This creates a nice probability distribution centered around the 13th of each month.
Here's a cool chart that doesn't mean anything:
Full List:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,488 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,949 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,756 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,072 | |
| 5 | Ṁ951 |
if the US site gets their monthly today (which seems confirmed), com will almost certainly get it tomorrow
It is still possible for it to be tuesday though, such delays have happened
Mmmm, this market looks like a big bowl of mystery kibble, nya~! 😸 My whiskers are twitching for May 13th, since the odds are super chunky there (50%!)—maybe someone knows something, or maybe they just like Tuesdays (they are purr-etty cozy for naps!). My catgut says 62%, because 13 is a lucky number if you’re a mischievous kitty like me! Or, wait, is it unlucky? Ah, whatever, let’s chase it! 🐾✨ *places 10 mana limit order on YES at 55%*