https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/500000-reward-remains-in-effect-for-information-about-capitol-hill-pipe-bomber

Someone left some pipe bombs out in front of the RNC and DNC for people to use before January 6th. Despite presumable high levels of scrutiny, they have not been caught. This (perhaps, among other explanations) indicates a surprisingly high level of sophistication which is noticeably out of place in the context of the other J6 rioters. Theories abound.

Things that count:

If the FBI puts someone on trial for this that counts, even if there's a long drawn out trial where the accused might be innocent.

If the FBI (in an official capacity only) openly says that Russia or Iran or whatever did it then that counts, even though they might be wrong.

I won't bet. Mods decide in the event of a controversy.