Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Brent Crude Oil closes at or above $115 per barrel on March 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official closing price from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm or equivalent authoritative source. If the market does not trade on March 31, 2026, the most recent trading day's close will be used.

Background

Brent crude recently topped $112 on Friday before falling about 11% to around $99 per barrel on Monday, reflecting significant volatility driven by geopolitical developments. As of March 25, 2026, Brent crude futures stood at $100.54 per barrel. The recent sharp sell-off followed Brent topping $112 on Friday, indicating the price has already approached the $115 threshold within the past week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent crude oil will remain above $95/b over the next two months, though this forecast predates the recent price spike.

Considerations

Oil prices are currently trading on geopolitical risk as Middle East supply fears remain elevated, with crude effectively trading on a geopolitical risk premium as investors hedge against prolonged disruptions. The outcome depends heavily on developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which could shift dramatically in the six days remaining until March 31.

This description was generated by AI.

¡ I'm leaving the probability/chance at 50% since you never know what might happen 🤷‍♀️