Resolution criteria

The closing price of Brent crude oil futures as quoted on TradingEconomics at the end of May 1st, 2026 (23:59 UTC). The market resolves to whichever price bracket the closing price falls within. Resolution will be verified via the TradingEconomics Brent crude oil page: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Background

Brent crude futures closed at $112.19 per barrel on March 20, 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions. Iraq declared a force majeure at all oilfields operated by foreign companies and drones struck two refineries in Kuwait, disrupting supply. Citi expects Brent to climb to $120 per barrel over the next one to three months, and to $150 per barrel in a bull-case scenario if disruptions intensify. However, its base case assumes de-escalation within four to six weeks, which would allow Brent to ease back to $70–$80 by year-end. The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil price will remain above $95/b over the next two months, before falling below $80/b in the third quarter of 2026.

Considerations

The market resolves based on a single closing price on a specific date. May 1st falls within the timeframe where forecasters expect elevated prices but before anticipated de-escalation effects fully materialize. The price brackets are wide enough to accommodate significant volatility, but traders should note that outcomes depend heavily on the trajectory of Middle East geopolitical developments over the next six weeks.