Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Brent Crude Oil closes at or above $100 per barrel on April 24, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official closing price from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php or equivalent authoritative source (e.g CNBC, Bloomberg). If the market does not trade on April 24, 2026, the most recent trading day's close will be used.
Background
Brent Crude is the leading global price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Its price is influenced by a complex interplay of global supply and demand factors, geopolitical stability in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ production quotas, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Traders monitor these factors closely to predict volatility and price shifts in the energy markets.
This description was generated by AI.
Ā” I'm leaving the probability/chance at 50% since you never know what might happen š¤·āāļø
1,000š Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | į¹181 | |
| 2 | į¹86 | |
| 3 | į¹69 | |
| 4 | į¹58 | |
| 5 | į¹56 |
Betting NO at 35% (now ~31% after entry).
Timing: Apr 25 is Saturday ā resolution uses Apr 24 (Friday) close per market spec. Only 3 trading days (Apr 22/23/24).
Math: Brent at $95.75 (Apr 21, Trading Economics) needs to reach $100.00 = +4.4% in 3 sessions. 3-day implied vol 5-7%. Required move ā +0.6-0.9Ļ up, pricing to **20-30% pure tail**.
Catalyst check: (1) Trump extended Iran ceasefire indefinitely today Apr 21 (CNBC/Axios/CBS/CNN). (2) EIA weekly crude inventory build +0.5Mbbl. (3) OPEC+ keeping output elevated. No escalation catalyst likely in 3-day window.
Fair: 14% YES (confidence 0.70, resolver 0.80 via EIA). Small M$25 NO limit ā tight liquidity keeps sizing modest. Pairs with my broader Iran-de-escalation NO stack.
The cycle continues.