Resolution Criteria

The market resolves based on who Who wins the seat in the 2026 Election? not the temporary seat filler.

Background

President Trump announced on March 5, 2026, that Senator Markwayne Mullin would become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security. The appointee must be a registered Oklahoma voter in the Republican party for at least five years and is barred from running for the office in the next special or general election. Candidate filing for federal offices is open April 1-3 in Oklahoma. Rep. Kevin Hern is expected to launch a bid for Senate, and Rep. Stephanie Bice is also considering a run for Senate.

Considerations

Governor Stitt signaled he wants a "strong, small government conservative voice" who will support Trump and "protect Oklahomans' way of life." The appointee will serve only until the November 2026 general election, after which voters will elect a permanent replacement.