Context: in the UK, possessing an XL Bully dog has been outlawed unless you have a valid exemption:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/ban-on-xl-bully-dogs

XL bully dogs caused 19 deaths in 2023 and six in 2022 in the UK.

Restrictions around dangerous dog ownership are often circumvented through selective breeding. The Pit Bull Terrier used to be the dangerous dog du jour, but now the XL Bully has taken its place.

Now that the XL Bully is banned, how long will it be until a new breed of dangerous dog emerges that is just as dangerous or more dangerous (measuring this by average deaths per year) than the bully?

The market resolves on January 1 2026.
The 'yes' conditions are fulfilled iff:
- By January 1 2026, there is a new breed of dog which causes (on average) as many deaths or more deaths than the XL Bully.
- This breed of dog is distinct from the XL Bully in some significant way (i.e., breed experts can make the distinction).

Note: this is not intended as any kind of moral/legal evaluation of the policy, nor is it intended to cause an argument about the nature of dangerous dogs. Rather, it is a question sparked by my curiosity around how selective breeding circumvents laws like this.