(To what extent) will my next long-term relationship be with someone who successfully recommended me a book?
3
54
115
2036
54%
chance

I ask most of my dates for book recommendations.

I'll categorize answers into one of the following:

  1. No answer -- for example, ignoring the question, answers with "I don't like to read", or answering with something that isn't a specific book, like a genre they like.

  2. A book I've already read.

  3. A book I haven't read, and won't end up reading before officially considering myself to be in a relationship.

  4. A book I haven't read, and at least started reading before officially considering myself in a relationship.

This market resolves when I and the person in question considers ourselves to be in a long term relationship, to:

  • 0% if category 1

  • 33% if category 2

  • 66% if category 3

  • 100% if category 4

If I ask this question multiple times, I'll strictly upgrade the answer given by the person in question. For example, if I ask for book recommendations 3 times, and I get answers in categories 1, 3, and 2, I'll resolve this market if the person gave an answer in category 3.

If I don't start any long term relationships before the resolution date, or end up in a long term relationship with someone to whom I didn't ask this question, this market resolves N/A.

I won't bet on this market.

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